Compendium › Rebel Contraire › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-06-26 to present • 4 trades in period

+0.00%
Last Month Return
$8,193.01
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$-70.30
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:39:14

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 11.6/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 10.9

30-Day Momentum

32
+6.1%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 47.8 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$-70.30
Current Value
$8,193.01
Period P&L
$672.31
Max Drawdown
-23.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.49

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+5.59%
Worst Trade
-3.55%
Avg Trade Return
+1.60%
Avg Hold Time
4.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$63,892.49
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$672.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$672.31
Gross Return
+0.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $-70.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET $76.92 100 $7,692.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 11:35am ET $78.70 100 $7,870.00 $7,900.70 +$178.00
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 2:05pm ET $80.46 98 $7,885.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:00am ET $82.12 98 $8,047.76 $8,062.89 +$162.19
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET $76.92 100 $7,692.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $81.22 100 $8,122.00 $8,492.89 +$430.00
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
13d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:40am ET $82.76 102 $8,441.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $79.82 102 $8,141.64 $8,193.01 $-299.88
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,193.01
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,806.99
Total Return: -18.07%
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