Compendium › Rebel Contraire › BTCUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
BTCUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-21 to present • 28 trades in period

-48.50%
Last Month Return
$542.46
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$473.61
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-21 11:30:51

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.3/10
Raw Quality 10.1/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 10.0

30-Day Momentum

13
-22.4%
30d Return
48%
Win Rate
27
Trades
0.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 13.1 Conf: 1.00×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,115
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-21 → 2026-06-21
Trading Days
32 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$473.61
Current Value
$542.46
Period P&L
$-229.70
Max Drawdown
-95.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.25

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
14 / 14
Best Trade
+2.46%
Worst Trade
-6.99%
Avg Trade Return
-0.76%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$31,979.98
Estimated Fees
$79.95
Gross P&L
$-229.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$-309.65
Gross Return
-48.50%
Net Return (after fees)
-65.38%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 32 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $473.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 10:35am ET $76,277.80 0 $684.09 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 8:50pm ET $77,898.50 0 $698.62 $698.63 +$11.08
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.4d held
2 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 10:50pm ET $77,899.10 0 $698.63 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 6:45pm ET $75,554.90 0 $677.61 $677.61 $-24.46
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
3 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 8:40pm ET $75,167.00 0 $677.61 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2026 4:40pm ET $76,750.00 0 $691.88 $691.88 +$10.85
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20h held
4 🟢 BUY May 23, 2026 6:15pm ET $76,551.50 0 $691.88 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 6:15pm ET $74,183.90 0 $670.48 $670.48 $-24.80
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
5 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 6:55pm ET $74,352.00 0 $670.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 8:10am ET $72,000.00 0 $649.27 $649.27 $-24.51
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.6d held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 8:50am ET $72,076.00 0 $649.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 3:05am ET $69,799.90 0 $628.77 $628.77 $-23.70
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 4:50am ET $69,704.90 0 $628.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 11:20am ET $67,588.20 0 $609.68 $609.68 $-22.19
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.5h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:25am ET $67,458.90 0 $609.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 3:50pm ET $65,294.80 0 $590.12 $590.12 $-22.56
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 4:40pm ET $65,103.40 0 $590.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 8:35pm ET $63,055.00 0 $571.55 $571.55 $-21.47
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:25am ET $67,458.90 0 $609.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30pm ET $62,744.10 0 $567.07 $528.94 $-45.55
(-7.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:55pm ET $62,099.90 0 $528.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:45pm ET $63,460.60 0 $540.53 $540.53 +$8.92
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
50m held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 1:05am ET $63,772.20 0 $540.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET $61,383.90 0 $520.29 $520.29 $-22.90
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 3:05am ET $61,500.10 0 $520.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:35am ET $62,742.10 0 $530.79 $530.79 +$7.88
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
30m held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 6:05am ET $62,656.90 0 $530.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:55am ET $60,700.10 0 $514.22 $514.22 $-19.19
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 10:00am ET $60,577.00 0 $514.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 5:00pm ET $61,798.50 0 $524.59 $524.59 +$7.77
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7h held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 1:05am ET $63,772.20 0 $540.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2026 12:25am ET $60,137.30 0 $509.72 $493.78 $-33.43
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 6, 2026 1:05am ET $59,876.80 0 $493.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2026 2:05am ET $61,100.30 0 $503.87 $503.87 +$7.60
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1h held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 6, 2026 3:25am ET $60,848.30 0 $503.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2026 2:35am ET $62,106.10 0 $514.29 $514.29 +$7.87
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 7, 2026 2:55am ET $62,025.20 0 $514.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2026 6:15pm ET $63,549.90 0 $526.93 $526.93 +$10.04
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
15.3h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 7, 2026 6:25pm ET $62,913.90 0 $526.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $60,948.10 0 $510.47 $510.47 $-19.06
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 12:10pm ET $60,941.80 0 $510.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 9:45am ET $62,255.50 0 $521.47 $521.47 +$8.42
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:00am ET $62,036.20 0 $521.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 1:45pm ET $63,381.00 0 $532.77 $532.77 +$8.67
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 2:10pm ET $63,283.50 0 $532.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 13, 2026 7:20pm ET $64,549.90 0 $543.43 $543.43 +$7.97
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 13, 2026 7:45pm ET $64,428.70 0 $543.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 14, 2026 7:55pm ET $65,725.40 0 $554.37 $554.37 +$8.19
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 14, 2026 8:40pm ET $65,487.70 0 $554.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:20am ET $66,810.80 0 $565.57 $565.57 +$8.40
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12.7h held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $66,761.30 0 $565.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 7:00am ET $64,728.30 0 $548.35 $548.35 $-20.01
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 7:05am ET $64,573.10 0 $548.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 12:25pm ET $65,945.50 0 $560.00 $560.00 +$8.88
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 1:40pm ET $65,874.80 0 $560.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 12:20am ET $63,811.40 0 $542.46 $542.46 $-20.30
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $542.46
Net Profit/Loss: $-9,457.54
Total Return: -94.58%
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