Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:57:04

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 12.5/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 12.3

30-Day Momentum

9
-5.7%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.87×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$6,984.01
Current Value
$6,702.68
Period P&L
$-281.26
Max Drawdown
-11.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.22

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
4 / 6
Best Trade
+2.28%
Worst Trade
-4.45%
Avg Trade Return
-0.54%
Avg Hold Time
2.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$137,160.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-281.26
Net P&L (after fees)
$-281.26
Gross Return
-4.03%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.03%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,984.01 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 12:05pm ET $236.86 30 $7,105.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 12:05pm ET $232.71 30 $6,981.30 $6,981.54 $-124.50
(-1.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 12:30pm ET $230.01 30 $6,900.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:55am ET $234.66 30 $7,039.80 $7,121.04 +$139.50
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET $236.74 30 $7,102.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:35am ET $229.33 30 $6,879.90 $6,898.74 $-222.30
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET $236.74 30 $7,102.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $234.68 30 $7,040.40 $6,836.94 $-61.80
(-0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 12:25pm ET $235.50 29 $6,829.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 12:25pm ET $233.82 29 $6,780.64 $6,788.08 $-48.86
(-0.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:30pm ET $236.34 28 $6,617.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:10am ET $241.73 28 $6,768.37 $6,938.93 +$150.85
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 10:40am ET $244.93 28 $6,857.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 12:10pm ET $250.51 28 $7,014.42 $7,095.45 +$156.52
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 1:20pm ET $251.19 28 $7,033.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $240.02 28 $6,720.56 $6,782.69 $-312.76
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 10:00am ET $240.86 28 $6,744.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:40am ET $233.32 28 $6,532.96 $6,571.57 $-211.12
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 9:45am ET $231.75 28 $6,489.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:10am ET $236.43 28 $6,620.11 $6,702.68 +$131.11
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,702.68
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,297.32
Total Return: -32.97%
Back to Rebel Contraire