Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:09:15

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 12.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.9

30-Day Momentum

63
+9.1%
30d Return
80%
Win Rate
10
Trades
2.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 72.6 Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+51 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,009.19
Current Value
$8,852.39
Period P&L
$843.18
Max Drawdown
-39.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.43

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
8 / 2
Best Trade
+2.71%
Worst Trade
-3.11%
Avg Trade Return
+0.92%
Avg Hold Time
3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$161,000.50
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$843.18
Net P&L (after fees)
$843.18
Gross Return
+10.53%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.53%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $8,009.19 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:10pm ET $379.48 21 $7,968.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 10:30am ET $367.96 21 $7,727.16 $7,869.59 $-241.82
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:30am ET $367.98 21 $7,727.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 10:30am ET $372.29 21 $7,818.09 $7,960.10 +$90.51
(+1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 10:40am ET $370.41 21 $7,778.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET $380.45 21 $7,989.45 $8,170.94 +$210.84
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:30am ET $367.98 21 $7,727.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:35am ET $368.31 21 $7,734.51 $8,177.87 +$6.93
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
8d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 2:20pm ET $365.71 22 $8,045.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 10:40am ET $354.34 22 $7,795.48 $7,927.62 $-250.25
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 1:45pm ET $350.88 22 $7,719.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:50am ET $358.72 22 $7,891.84 $8,100.10 +$172.48
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET $364.95 22 $8,028.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $373.80 22 $8,223.60 $8,294.80 +$194.70
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $372.03 22 $8,184.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:45am ET $381.71 22 $8,397.62 $8,507.76 +$212.96
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 10:25am ET $378.59 22 $8,328.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 1:25pm ET $386.34 22 $8,499.48 $8,678.26 +$170.50
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 1:35pm ET $391.79 22 $8,619.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 12:50pm ET $399.70 22 $8,793.51 $8,852.39 +$174.13
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,852.39
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,147.61
Total Return: -11.48%
Back to Rebel Contraire