Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:10:13

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.7/35
Total Return
10.2/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 23.5/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 23.4

30-Day Momentum

5
-3.8%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 6.8 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,062.61
Current Value
$11,864.94
Period P&L
$-197.68
Max Drawdown
-33.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.08

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
4 / 4
Best Trade
+2.45%
Worst Trade
-4.13%
Avg Trade Return
-0.18%
Avg Hold Time
3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$167,544.05
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-197.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$-197.68
Gross Return
-1.64%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.64%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,062.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 10:10am ET $1,242.57 9 $11,183.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:40am ET $1,191.30 9 $10,721.70 $11,601.19 $-461.43
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:40am ET $1,179.76 9 $10,617.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $1,176.61 9 $10,589.49 $11,572.84 $-28.35
(-0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET $1,179.84 9 $10,618.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:40am ET $1,143.06 9 $10,287.54 $11,241.82 $-331.02
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 10:20am ET $1,142.67 9 $10,284.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:20am ET $1,131.25 9 $10,181.25 $11,139.04 $-102.78
(-1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 10:35am ET $1,125.25 9 $10,127.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 11:50am ET $1,148.95 9 $10,340.55 $11,352.34 +$213.30
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 12:50pm ET $1,142.20 9 $10,279.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $1,144.00 9 $10,296.00 $11,368.50 +$16.16
(+0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET $1,141.69 9 $10,275.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:35am ET $1,168.26 9 $10,514.34 $11,607.63 +$239.13
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
55m held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 10:40am ET $1,165.00 9 $10,485.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 10:15am ET $1,193.59 9 $10,742.31 $11,864.94 +$257.31
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,864.94
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,864.94
Total Return: +18.65%
Back to Rebel Contraire