Compendium › Rebel Contraire › MA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MA
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-06-26 to present • 3 trades in period

+4.91%
Last Month Return
$13,600.53
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$12,963.98
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:37:11

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

35
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
10.3/35
Total Return
13.0/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
1.8/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 37.5/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 35.4

30-Day Momentum

33
+4.7%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
3
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 53.5 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,963.98
Current Value
$13,600.53
Period P&L
$636.52
Max Drawdown
-12.2%
Sharpe Ratio
1.75

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
3 / 0
Best Trade
+2.33%
Worst Trade
+0.31%
Avg Trade Return
+1.55%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$79,720.40
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$636.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$636.52
Gross Return
+4.91%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.91%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,963.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 11:00am ET $499.04 26 $12,975.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:55am ET $509.06 26 $13,235.56 $13,251.83 +$260.52
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 10:10am ET $508.17 26 $13,212.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:05am ET $520.00 26 $13,520.00 $13,559.28 +$307.45
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 11:35am ET $534.72 25 $13,368.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:35am ET $536.37 25 $13,409.25 $13,600.53 +$41.25
(+0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,600.53
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,600.53
Total Return: +36.01%
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