Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:06:17

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 12.0/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 12.0

30-Day Momentum

35
+3.9%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 37.3 Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+23 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,255.88
Current Value
$8,059.23
Period P&L
$-196.70
Max Drawdown
-40.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
8 / 6
Best Trade
+2.50%
Worst Trade
-4.25%
Avg Trade Return
-0.13%
Avg Hold Time
20.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$218,886.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-196.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$-196.70
Gross Return
-2.38%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.38%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $8,255.88 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 10:50am ET $11.59 712 $8,252.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 3:35pm ET $11.23 712 $7,999.32 $8,003.17 $-252.76
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $11.49 696 $8,000.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 11:55am ET $11.13 696 $7,743.00 $7,745.65 $-257.52
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 12:15pm ET $12.01 645 $7,743.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 1:20pm ET $12.27 645 $7,917.37 $7,919.80 +$174.15
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 1:40pm ET $10.69 740 $7,914.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 10:30am ET $10.37 740 $7,673.80 $7,679.30 $-240.50
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 11:50am ET $10.39 739 $7,678.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $10.05 739 $7,423.26 $7,424.34 $-254.96
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 2:35pm ET $11.42 650 $7,423.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 3:30pm ET $11.70 650 $7,608.25 $7,609.59 +$185.25
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
55m held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:40pm ET $11.24 676 $7,601.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:45am ET $11.48 676 $7,757.10 $7,765.07 +$155.48
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 10:45am ET $11.88 653 $7,754.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:40am ET $11.37 653 $7,424.61 $7,435.30 $-329.77
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:45am ET $12.02 618 $7,425.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 11:30am ET $12.31 618 $7,604.49 $7,614.52 +$179.22
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
45m held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 12:35pm ET $11.60 656 $7,612.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 1:45pm ET $11.85 656 $7,776.88 $7,778.52 +$164.00
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 2:15pm ET $11.26 690 $7,769.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 11:15am ET $11.50 690 $7,935.07 $7,944.12 +$165.60
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
21h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 11:45am ET $12.64 628 $7,934.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 12:35pm ET $12.93 628 $8,118.34 $8,127.68 +$183.56
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
50m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 1:00pm ET $13.39 607 $8,124.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:05am ET $13.69 607 $8,312.86 $8,315.85 +$188.17
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.1h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 10:15am ET $13.40 620 $8,307.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 11:20am ET $12.98 620 $8,050.70 $8,059.23 $-256.62
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,059.23
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,940.77
Total Return: -19.41%
Back to Rebel Contraire