Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:21:56

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.9/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 35.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 35.7

30-Day Momentum

9
-2.8%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.1 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-26 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$15,051.86
Current Value
$14,558.39
Period P&L
$-493.46
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
4 / 3
Best Trade
+2.26%
Worst Trade
-3.14%
Avg Trade Return
-0.38%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$205,776.70
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-493.46
Net P&L (after fees)
$-493.46
Gross Return
-3.28%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.28%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $15,051.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 3:40pm ET $213.88 70 $14,971.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 3:40pm ET $214.09 70 $14,986.12 $14,990.07 +$14.87
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:30am ET $216.24 69 $14,920.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 11:30am ET $213.14 69 $14,706.66 $14,776.17 $-213.90
(-1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 12:10pm ET $216.76 68 $14,739.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 12:10pm ET $217.57 68 $14,794.42 $14,830.91 +$54.74
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $216.00 68 $14,688.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 10:50am ET $209.21 68 $14,226.28 $14,369.19 $-461.72
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $202.49 70 $14,174.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $207.07 70 $14,494.90 $14,689.79 +$320.60
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:45am ET $201.14 73 $14,683.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $205.55 73 $15,005.15 $15,011.72 +$321.93
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET $204.38 73 $14,919.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET $198.17 73 $14,466.41 $14,558.39 $-453.33
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,558.39
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,558.39
Total Return: +45.58%
Back to Rebel Contraire