Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:57:45

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

33
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.5/35
Total Return
13.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 33.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 33.1

30-Day Momentum

12
+0.4%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.4 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$526.21
Current Value
$13,571.90
Period P&L
$-13.07
Max Drawdown
-19.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
5 / 3
Best Trade
+2.12%
Worst Trade
-3.87%
Avg Trade Return
+0.15%
Avg Hold Time
4.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$210,203.60
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-13.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$-13.07
Gross Return
-2.48%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.48%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $526.21 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 11:55am ET $481.11 27 $12,989.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $483.66 27 $13,058.79 $13,516.15 +$68.82
(+0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 11:55am ET $481.11 27 $12,989.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $487.94 27 $13,174.38 $13,700.56 +$184.41
(+1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $490.90 27 $13,254.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:10am ET $501.31 27 $13,535.37 $13,981.49 +$280.93
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
35m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 10:15am ET $508.39 27 $13,726.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 10:15am ET $497.73 27 $13,438.84 $13,693.80 $-287.69
(-2.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 12:25pm ET $512.86 26 $13,334.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $493.04 26 $12,818.91 $13,178.35 $-515.45
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:15am ET $491.61 26 $12,781.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 10:00am ET $501.85 26 $13,048.10 $13,444.50 +$266.15
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:00am ET $500.93 26 $13,024.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $495.59 26 $12,885.34 $13,305.66 $-138.84
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:45am ET $497.62 26 $12,938.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:40am ET $507.86 26 $13,204.36 $13,571.90 +$266.24
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,571.90
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,571.90
Total Return: +35.72%
Back to Rebel Contraire