Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:37:19

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

40
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
10.6/35
Total Return
16.5/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 42.0/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 39.9

30-Day Momentum

3
-19.9%
30d Return
17%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-37 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$24,585.58
Current Value
$19,697.77
Period P&L
$-4,887.74
Max Drawdown
-32.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-1.09

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
1 / 5
Best Trade
+2.05%
Worst Trade
-9.20%
Avg Trade Return
-3.64%
Avg Hold Time
8.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$266,956.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,887.74
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,887.74
Gross Return
-19.88%
Net Return (after fees)
-19.88%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $24,585.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 1:35pm ET $1,168.49 21 $24,538.29
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:50pm ET $1,132.18 21 $23,775.68 $23,822.90 $-762.61
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 3:50pm ET $1,122.30 21 $23,568.30
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,145.31 21 $24,051.61 $24,306.21 +$483.31
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $1,068.12 22 $23,498.64
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,032.52 22 $22,715.44 $23,523.01 $-783.20
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.4h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 10:55am ET $1,010.49 23 $23,241.27
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $917.57 23 $21,104.11 $21,385.85 $-2,137.16
(-9.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 10:10am ET $944.69 22 $20,783.18
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 11:25am ET $916.00 22 $20,152.00 $20,754.67 $-631.18
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 2:35pm ET $1,014.63 20 $20,292.50
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $961.78 20 $19,235.60 $19,697.77 $-1,056.90
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,697.77
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,697.77
Total Return: +96.98%
Back to Rebel Contraire