Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:32:06

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

61
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
25.3/35
Total Return
17.7/25
Win Rate
8.8/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 61.9/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 60.9

30-Day Momentum

49
+9.8%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 52.4 Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$21,315.56
Current Value
$23,409.67
Period P&L
$2,094.13
Max Drawdown
-18.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.27

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
8 / 4
Best Trade
+5.44%
Worst Trade
-3.75%
Avg Trade Return
+0.83%
Avg Hold Time
22.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$535,641.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,094.13
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,094.13
Gross Return
+9.82%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.82%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $21,315.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:45am ET $350.45 60 $21,027.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 1:35pm ET $339.58 60 $20,374.50 $20,677.14 $-652.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 2:40pm ET $340.06 60 $20,403.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $358.56 60 $21,513.60 $21,787.14 +$1,110.00
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $376.93 57 $21,485.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:50am ET $365.41 57 $20,828.37 $21,130.50 $-656.64
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 10:35am ET $374.96 56 $20,997.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 3:50pm ET $383.12 56 $21,454.72 $21,587.46 +$456.96
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:40am ET $329.00 65 $21,385.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 10:30am ET $336.26 65 $21,856.58 $22,059.04 +$471.58
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
50m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 10:30am ET $329.41 66 $21,741.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:45am ET $338.49 66 $22,340.34 $22,658.32 +$599.28
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 11:40am ET $334.36 67 $22,401.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:50am ET $343.30 67 $23,001.29 $23,257.82 +$599.50
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:10am ET $336.04 69 $23,186.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $346.24 69 $23,890.70 $23,962.10 +$704.28
(+3.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $368.28 65 $23,938.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $375.73 65 $24,422.13 $24,446.03 +$483.93
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 12:00pm ET $379.35 64 $24,278.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $365.11 64 $23,367.36 $23,534.99 $-911.04
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $374.00 62 $23,188.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:45am ET $362.45 62 $22,471.90 $22,818.89 $-716.10
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 11:15am ET $372.93 61 $22,748.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:40am ET $382.61 61 $23,339.51 $23,409.67 +$590.78
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $23,409.67
Net Profit/Loss: +$13,409.67
Total Return: +134.10%
Back to Rebel Contraire