Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:29:17

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

17
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.3/35
Total Return
4.2/25
Win Rate
6.0/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 16.6/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 16.5

30-Day Momentum

3
-1.3%
30d Return
17%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-13 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,262.26
Current Value
$10,218.41
Period P&L
$-43.88
Max Drawdown
-24.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
1 / 5
Best Trade
+2.71%
Worst Trade
-1.57%
Avg Trade Return
-0.23%
Avg Hold Time
5.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$118,709.10
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-43.88
Net P&L (after fees)
$-43.88
Gross Return
-0.43%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.43%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $10,262.26 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $719.90 14 $10,078.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $708.63 14 $9,920.82 $10,199.36 $-157.78
(-1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
8d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:25am ET $718.57 14 $10,059.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 11:25am ET $710.24 14 $9,943.36 $10,082.74 $-116.62
(-1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:25am ET $718.57 14 $10,059.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $717.29 14 $10,042.06 $10,064.82 $-17.92
(-0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:00pm ET $719.04 13 $9,347.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $716.45 13 $9,313.85 $10,031.15 $-33.67
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:20pm ET $710.78 14 $9,950.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 1:20pm ET $704.97 14 $9,869.59 $9,949.75 $-81.40
(-0.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $709.06 14 $9,926.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $728.25 14 $10,195.50 $10,218.41 +$268.66
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,218.41
Net Profit/Loss: +$218.41
Total Return: +2.18%
Back to Rebel Contraire