Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:28:41

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.4/35
Total Return
15.1/25
Win Rate
8.6/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 36.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 36.6

30-Day Momentum

60
+14.4%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 71.8 Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+24 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$14,331.26
Current Value
$15,808.04
Period P&L
$1,476.83
Max Drawdown
-34.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.27

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
6 / 4
Best Trade
+7.37%
Worst Trade
-3.58%
Avg Trade Return
+1.06%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$316,615.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,476.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,476.83
Gross Return
+10.30%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.30%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $14,331.26 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 12:10pm ET $38.51 372 $14,325.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET $39.67 372 $14,759.10 $14,764.59 +$433.38
(+3.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.4h held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 10:20am ET $37.97 388 $14,734.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $38.86 388 $15,077.68 $15,107.97 +$343.38
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 12:25pm ET $40.55 372 $15,084.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $43.19 372 $16,064.82 $16,088.19 +$980.22
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 10:55am ET $42.25 380 $16,055.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 2:05pm ET $43.10 380 $16,379.90 $16,413.09 +$324.90
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:10pm ET $44.99 364 $16,376.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:10am ET $43.57 364 $15,859.48 $15,896.21 $-516.88
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 11:50am ET $45.20 351 $15,865.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 12:00pm ET $46.15 351 $16,198.65 $16,229.66 +$333.45
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 12:45pm ET $50.41 321 $16,181.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:50am ET $48.90 321 $15,695.30 $15,743.35 $-486.31
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 11:10am ET $47.50 331 $15,722.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $51.00 331 $16,881.00 $16,901.85 +$1,158.50
(+7.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $50.61 333 $16,853.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:25am ET $49.08 333 $16,345.30 $16,394.02 $-507.83
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 10:40am ET $49.31 332 $16,370.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 2:25pm ET $47.54 332 $15,784.94 $15,808.04 $-585.98
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,808.04
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,808.04
Total Return: +58.08%
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