Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:07:09

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 10.8/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 10.8

30-Day Momentum

61
+13.5%
30d Return
77%
Win Rate
13
Trades
2.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 64.0 Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+50 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$4,269.08
Current Value
$4,755.61
Period P&L
$486.49
Max Drawdown
-55.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.30

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
11 / 4
Best Trade
+2.50%
Worst Trade
-3.92%
Avg Trade Return
+0.75%
Avg Hold Time
15.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$131,927.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$486.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$486.49
Gross Return
+11.40%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.40%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $4,269.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 10:45am ET $20.36 209 $4,255.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 11:30am ET $20.80 209 $4,347.20 $4,361.08 +$91.96
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
45m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 12:20pm ET $21.34 204 $4,354.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 11:00am ET $20.68 204 $4,219.74 $4,226.44 $-134.64
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:20am ET $21.58 195 $4,208.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 12:15pm ET $20.91 195 $4,077.45 $4,095.79 $-130.65
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 1:00pm ET $19.03 215 $4,091.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $18.39 215 $3,954.07 $3,958.34 $-137.45
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $17.97 220 $3,953.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 1:50pm ET $18.41 220 $4,050.20 $4,055.14 +$96.80
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 2:25pm ET $20.88 194 $4,050.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:50am ET $21.35 194 $4,141.90 $4,146.32 +$91.18
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 10:25am ET $22.27 186 $4,143.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:45am ET $22.78 186 $4,237.08 $4,240.25 +$93.93
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 12:15pm ET $21.67 195 $4,226.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 2:35pm ET $22.13 195 $4,314.38 $4,328.00 +$87.75
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 2:55pm ET $21.13 204 $4,310.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET $21.66 204 $4,418.11 $4,435.79 +$107.79
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.1h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 11:00am ET $20.53 216 $4,434.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 12:20pm ET $20.98 216 $4,531.68 $4,532.99 +$97.20
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 12:40pm ET $19.93 227 $4,525.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:50am ET $20.40 227 $4,629.67 $4,637.41 +$104.42
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 11:15am ET $21.37 217 $4,637.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 12:05pm ET $21.89 217 $4,749.05 $4,749.16 +$111.75
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
50m held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 2:40pm ET $23.34 203 $4,739.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:45pm ET $23.85 203 $4,841.55 $4,851.68 +$102.52
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 3:50pm ET $24.00 202 $4,846.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET $24.48 202 $4,944.96 $4,949.65 +$97.97
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
17.8h held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 11:20am ET $24.97 198 $4,944.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $23.99 198 $4,750.02 $4,755.61 $-194.04
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,755.61
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,244.39
Total Return: -52.44%
Back to Rebel Contraire