Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:10:51

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality 10.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 10.0

30-Day Momentum

12
-3.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 13.8 Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$4,475.70
Current Value
$4,286.19
Period P&L
$-189.49
Max Drawdown
-60.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
5 / 5
Best Trade
+3.53%
Worst Trade
-3.49%
Avg Trade Return
-0.32%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$83,101.12
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-189.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$-189.49
Gross Return
-4.23%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.23%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $4,475.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 1:15pm ET $16.94 262 $4,439.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 10:25am ET $16.38 262 $4,290.25 $4,297.51 $-149.34
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:15am ET $16.62 258 $4,289.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:40am ET $16.11 258 $4,156.38 $4,164.74 $-132.77
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 11:20am ET $16.23 256 $4,154.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $15.71 256 $4,021.76 $4,031.59 $-133.15
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:45am ET $15.48 260 $4,025.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $16.03 260 $4,167.80 $4,173.53 +$141.93
(+3.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 10:15am ET $15.73 265 $4,167.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:45am ET $16.09 265 $4,263.85 $4,270.25 +$96.72
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:55am ET $16.20 263 $4,261.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET $15.64 263 $4,113.35 $4,121.68 $-148.57
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:15am ET $16.39 251 $4,113.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 10:20am ET $15.83 251 $3,973.30 $3,981.10 $-140.58
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:50am ET $15.51 256 $3,969.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 1:05pm ET $15.82 256 $4,051.20 $4,063.02 +$81.92
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:35pm ET $15.23 266 $4,049.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $15.63 266 $4,157.58 $4,170.75 +$107.73
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.9h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 10:00am ET $15.18 274 $4,159.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET $15.60 274 $4,274.76 $4,286.19 +$115.44
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,286.19
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,713.81
Total Return: -57.14%
Back to Rebel Contraire