Compendium › Rebel Contraire › SMCI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SMCI
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-24 to present • 14 trades in period

+0.00%
Last Month Return
$7,505.60
Current Value
64%
Win Rate
$-124.38
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:05:58

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 11.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.3

30-Day Momentum

46
+9.5%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 49.8 Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+35 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$-124.38
Current Value
$7,505.60
Period P&L
$909.18
Max Drawdown
-63.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
9 / 5
Best Trade
+5.05%
Worst Trade
-3.48%
Avg Trade Return
+0.62%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$188,977.44
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$909.18
Net P&L (after fees)
$909.18
Gross Return
+0.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $-124.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:20am ET $36.80 187 $6,881.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $35.64 187 $6,664.42 $6,700.31 $-216.62
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:20am ET $36.80 187 $6,881.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $38.03 187 $7,111.61 $6,930.88 +$230.57
(+3.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 10:40am ET $38.24 181 $6,922.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 12:05pm ET $37.09 181 $6,713.29 $6,721.83 $-209.05
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 1:30pm ET $37.25 180 $6,704.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $35.95 180 $6,471.00 $6,488.55 $-233.28
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET $36.18 179 $6,476.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 3:30pm ET $36.90 179 $6,605.99 $6,618.33 +$129.77
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 11:30am ET $39.69 166 $6,587.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 12:20pm ET $40.52 166 $6,726.32 $6,756.94 +$138.61
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
50m held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 12:20pm ET $40.65 166 $6,747.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:40am ET $39.35 166 $6,532.10 $6,541.97 $-214.97
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:55am ET $38.80 168 $6,518.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $37.56 168 $6,309.24 $6,332.79 $-209.18
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6h held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 10:40am ET $37.19 170 $6,323.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 12:55pm ET $37.99 170 $6,458.30 $6,467.94 +$135.15
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 2:40pm ET $36.04 179 $6,451.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:50am ET $36.78 179 $6,583.62 $6,600.40 +$132.46
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.2h held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 10:10am ET $38.78 170 $6,593.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 10:30am ET $39.71 170 $6,749.85 $6,756.80 +$156.40
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20m held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 12:20pm ET $38.59 175 $6,753.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $40.54 175 $7,094.50 $7,098.05 +$341.25
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:50am ET $41.04 172 $7,058.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET $42.42 172 $7,296.24 $7,335.41 +$237.36
(+3.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 10:45am ET $40.09 182 $7,296.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 12:20pm ET $41.03 182 $7,466.57 $7,505.60 +$170.19
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,505.60
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,494.40
Total Return: -24.94%
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