Compendium › Rebel Contraire › TLT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TLT
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-07 to present • 4 trades in period

-0.51%
Last Month Return
$8,823.84
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$8,869.47
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 13:48:38

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 10.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 10.0

30-Day Momentum

3
-0.5%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,768
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$8,869.47
Current Value
$8,823.84
Period P&L
$-45.64
Max Drawdown
-15.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.24

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+0.50%
Worst Trade
-0.88%
Avg Trade Return
-0.13%
Avg Hold Time
6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$70,670.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-45.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$-45.64
Gross Return
-0.51%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.51%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $8,869.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:40am ET $86.22 102 $8,794.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $86.43 102 $8,815.86 $8,890.39 +$20.91
(+0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $86.67 102 $8,839.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $87.10 102 $8,884.20 $8,934.76 +$44.37
(+0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 10:45am ET $86.81 102 $8,854.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $86.49 102 $8,821.47 $8,902.12 $-32.64
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $86.11 103 $8,869.33 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $85.35 103 $8,791.05 $8,823.84 $-78.28
(-0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,823.84
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,176.16
Total Return: -11.76%
Back to Rebel Contraire