Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 07:53:00

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 11.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.1

30-Day Momentum

9
-2.7%
30d Return
44%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.2 Conf: 0.84×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$6,760.55
Current Value
$6,550.86
Period P&L
$-209.66
Max Drawdown
-41.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
4 / 5
Best Trade
+4.41%
Worst Trade
-4.09%
Avg Trade Return
-0.26%
Avg Hold Time
2.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$119,943.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-209.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$-209.66
Gross Return
-3.10%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.10%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,760.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 1:15pm ET $70.72 98 $6,930.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $69.66 98 $6,826.46 $6,629.96 $-104.10
(-1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:25am ET $72.55 91 $6,602.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 11:00am ET $74.10 91 $6,743.09 $6,771.00 +$141.04
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 11:35am ET $71.14 95 $6,757.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $68.93 95 $6,547.88 $6,560.95 $-210.05
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 10:55am ET $69.11 94 $6,496.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET $70.62 94 $6,638.27 $6,702.88 +$141.93
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:45am ET $72.56 92 $6,675.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:45am ET $71.75 92 $6,600.63 $6,628.45 $-74.43
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 10:50am ET $69.82 94 $6,563.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET $71.24 94 $6,696.56 $6,761.93 +$133.48
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 12:05pm ET $69.21 97 $6,713.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:20pm ET $66.93 97 $6,492.69 $6,541.25 $-220.68
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:50am ET $71.73 91 $6,527.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $74.89 91 $6,814.99 $6,828.81 +$287.56
(+4.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 10:05am ET $79.97 85 $6,797.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $76.70 85 $6,519.50 $6,550.86 $-277.95
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,550.86
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,449.14
Total Return: -34.49%
Back to Rebel Contraire