Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:58:33

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.9/35
Total Return
13.6/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 31.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 31.0

30-Day Momentum

28
+3.6%
30d Return
63%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 34.3 Conf: 0.81×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,736.22
Current Value
$14,237.31
Period P&L
$501.08
Max Drawdown
-37.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
5 / 3
Best Trade
+3.46%
Worst Trade
-3.86%
Avg Trade Return
+0.48%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$215,667.92
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$501.08
Net P&L (after fees)
$501.08
Gross Return
+3.65%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.65%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,736.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 11:25am ET $357.41 38 $13,581.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $343.60 38 $13,056.80 $13,211.45 $-524.78
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:30am ET $352.32 37 $13,035.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:45am ET $359.42 37 $13,298.54 $13,474.34 +$262.89
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 10:20am ET $358.40 37 $13,260.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $370.82 37 $13,720.34 $13,933.69 +$459.35
(+3.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $362.78 38 $13,785.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 11:55am ET $351.70 38 $13,364.60 $13,512.65 $-421.04
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 12:10pm ET $367.21 36 $13,219.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $359.79 36 $12,952.44 $13,245.53 $-267.12
(-2.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $357.78 37 $13,237.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $366.70 37 $13,568.08 $13,575.75 +$330.22
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:55am ET $366.39 37 $13,556.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET $375.74 37 $13,902.38 $13,921.70 +$345.95
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 11:00am ET $375.83 37 $13,905.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:50am ET $384.36 37 $14,221.32 $14,237.31 +$315.61
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,237.31
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,237.31
Total Return: +42.37%
Back to Rebel Contraire