Compendium › Rebel Contraire › XLE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLE
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-06-26 to present • 3 trades in period

+51.27%
Last Month Return
$18,699.01
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$262.09
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:35:52

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

56
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
23.6/35
Total Return
16.2/25
Win Rate
8.7/15
Profit Factor
4.4/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 58.9/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 55.7

30-Day Momentum

27
+3.3%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
4.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 43.3 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-29 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$262.09
Current Value
$18,699.01
Period P&L
$134.36
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Sharpe Ratio
1.02

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+2.28%
Worst Trade
-0.33%
Avg Trade Return
+1.10%
Avg Hold Time
5.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$109,441.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$134.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$134.36
Gross Return
+51.27%
Net Return (after fees)
+51.27%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $262.09 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:30pm ET $53.31 339 $18,070.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 1:30pm ET $54.01 339 $18,311.08 $18,340.90 +$240.69
(+1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:30pm ET $53.31 339 $18,070.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $53.13 339 $18,011.07 $18,281.58 $-59.32
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
11.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 11:25am ET $54.08 338 $18,280.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $55.32 338 $18,698.16 $18,699.01 +$417.43
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,699.01
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,699.01
Total Return: +86.99%
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