Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:19:07

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.9/35
Total Return
8.0/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 21.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 20.8

30-Day Momentum

5
-0.4%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 6.8 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$10,832.25
Current Value
$10,827.39
Period P&L
$-4.86
Max Drawdown
-30.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
3 / 4
Best Trade
+2.39%
Worst Trade
-2.51%
Avg Trade Return
-0.04%
Avg Hold Time
4.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$150,596.74
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4.86
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4.86
Gross Return
-0.04%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.04%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $10,832.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:55am ET $183.23 59 $10,810.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:55am ET $182.19 59 $10,749.21 $10,810.42 $-61.39
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:15am ET $182.06 59 $10,741.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $186.42 59 $10,998.78 $11,067.53 +$257.11
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET $187.48 59 $11,061.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET $182.78 59 $10,784.02 $10,790.23 $-277.30
(-2.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET $187.48 59 $11,061.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $185.49 59 $10,943.91 $10,672.82 $-117.41
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:00pm ET $187.40 56 $10,494.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $188.16 56 $10,536.96 $10,715.38 +$42.56
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:20pm ET $185.91 57 $10,596.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 1:20pm ET $183.94 57 $10,484.58 $10,603.09 $-112.29
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
7 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $185.16 57 $10,554.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:50pm ET $189.10 57 $10,778.70 $10,827.39 +$224.30
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,827.39
Net Profit/Loss: +$827.39
Total Return: +8.27%
Back to Rebel Contraire