TLT Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-07 to present • 52 trades in period
-9.49%
Last Year Return
$8,823.84
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$9,748.89
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
10.0/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 10.0
30-Day Momentum
3
-0.5%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2
Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
39,338
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$9,748.89
Current Value
$8,823.84
Period P&L
$-925.06
Max Drawdown
-15.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
52
Winners / Losers
23 /
29
Best Trade
+2.07%
Worst Trade
-2.46%
Avg Trade Return
-0.17%
Avg Hold Time
5.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$964,367.56
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-925.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$-925.06
Gross Return
-9.49%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.49%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 52 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,748.89 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2025 10:05am ET | $86.65 | 111 | $9,618.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.48 | 111 | $9,599.28 | $9,631.24 |
$-19.27 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2025 9:40am ET | $86.10 | 111 | $9,557.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $84.94 | 111 | $9,428.34 | $9,502.48 |
$-128.76 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2025 9:35am ET | $85.19 | 111 | $9,456.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $85.27 | 111 | $9,464.97 | $9,511.36 |
+$8.88 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2025 9:35am ET | $85.45 | 111 | $9,484.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2025 9:35am ET | $85.21 | 111 | $9,457.76 | $9,484.72 |
$-26.64 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2025 10:30am ET | $85.25 | 111 | $9,462.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $85.17 | 111 | $9,453.87 | $9,475.85 |
$-8.87 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2025 10:10am ET | $85.91 | 110 | $9,449.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.00 | 110 | $9,460.00 | $9,486.21 |
+$10.35 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2025 2:40pm ET | $86.44 | 109 | $9,421.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.97 | 109 | $9,479.73 | $9,544.52 |
+$58.31 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2025 11:40am ET | $87.17 | 109 | $9,500.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.79 | 109 | $9,569.11 | $9,612.65 |
+$68.13 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.13 | 109 | $9,606.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.45 | 109 | $9,422.51 | $9,429.06 |
$-183.59 (-1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2025 9:35am ET | $85.47 | 110 | $9,401.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $85.62 | 110 | $9,418.20 | $9,445.56 |
+$16.50 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2025 10:00am ET | $85.35 | 110 | $9,389.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.10 | 110 | $9,471.00 | $9,527.53 |
+$81.97 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2025 1:30pm ET | $86.64 | 109 | $9,443.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $85.97 | 109 | $9,370.53 | $9,454.85 |
$-72.68 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2025 11:40am ET | $86.86 | 108 | $9,381.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.88 | 108 | $9,490.96 | $9,564.41 |
+$109.57 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2025 1:00pm ET | $88.21 | 108 | $9,526.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.46 | 108 | $9,445.14 | $9,482.87 |
$-81.54 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2025 10:15am ET | $86.61 | 109 | $9,440.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.50 | 109 | $9,427.96 | $9,470.34 |
$-12.53 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2025 10:15am ET | $86.56 | 109 | $9,435.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.71 | 109 | $9,451.38 | $9,486.68 |
+$16.34 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.54 | 109 | $9,433.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $85.62 | 109 | $9,332.04 | $9,385.33 |
$-101.35 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2025 10:50am ET | $86.49 | 108 | $9,340.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.28 | 108 | $9,534.24 | $9,578.65 |
+$193.32 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2025 10:20am ET | $89.40 | 107 | $9,565.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $90.22 | 107 | $9,653.01 | $9,666.39 |
+$87.74 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2025 11:15am ET | $90.16 | 107 | $9,647.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.75 | 107 | $9,496.23 | $9,515.42 |
$-150.97 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2025 10:55am ET | $88.82 | 107 | $9,503.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $89.30 | 107 | $9,555.19 | $9,566.87 |
+$51.45 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 11:05am ET | $89.81 | 106 | $9,519.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.74 | 106 | $9,406.44 | $9,453.98 |
$-112.89 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 7, 2025 9:45am ET | $88.86 | 106 | $9,418.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 2:35pm ET | $90.65 | 106 | $9,608.37 | $9,643.72 |
+$189.74 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:55am ET | $90.63 | 106 | $9,606.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $91.44 | 106 | $9,692.62 | $9,729.56 |
+$85.84 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 21, 2025 2:15pm ET | $92.01 | 105 | $9,661.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $91.29 | 105 | $9,585.44 | $9,653.95 |
$-75.61 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2025 12:35pm ET | $91.89 | 105 | $9,647.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $89.63 | 105 | $9,410.63 | $9,416.65 |
$-237.30 (-2.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:00am ET | $89.83 | 104 | $9,342.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $89.51 | 104 | $9,308.52 | $9,382.85 |
$-33.80 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 11:20am ET | $89.95 | 104 | $9,354.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $89.06 | 104 | $9,261.72 | $9,289.77 |
$-93.08 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 10:55am ET | $89.24 | 104 | $9,280.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $89.87 | 104 | $9,346.48 | $9,355.29 |
+$65.52 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 10:50am ET | $90.41 | 103 | $9,311.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.90 | 103 | $9,156.19 | $9,199.76 |
$-155.53 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:55am ET | $88.62 | 103 | $9,127.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.13 | 103 | $9,077.49 | $9,149.39 |
$-50.37 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 9:55am ET | $88.22 | 103 | $9,086.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.78 | 103 | $9,041.34 | $9,104.07 |
$-45.32 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 10:40am ET | $87.57 | 103 | $9,019.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.41 | 103 | $9,003.22 | $9,087.58 |
$-16.49 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 9:35am ET | $87.06 | 104 | $9,054.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.99 | 104 | $9,150.44 | $9,183.78 |
+$96.20 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:40am ET | $87.72 | 104 | $9,122.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.26 | 104 | $9,074.52 | $9,135.64 |
$-48.14 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $87.16 | 104 | $9,064.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.44 | 104 | $9,093.76 | $9,164.76 |
+$29.12 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 11:20am ET | $87.66 | 104 | $9,116.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.65 | 104 | $9,011.60 | $9,059.72 |
$-105.04 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $86.63 | 104 | $9,009.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:45am ET | $88.37 | 104 | $9,189.96 | $9,240.68 |
+$180.96 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $88.04 | 104 | $9,155.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.04 | 104 | $9,052.16 | $9,137.20 |
$-103.48 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:50am ET | $86.47 | 105 | $9,079.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.14 | 105 | $9,149.70 | $9,207.55 |
+$70.35 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:00pm ET | $88.42 | 104 | $9,195.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $88.43 | 104 | $9,197.24 | $9,209.36 |
+$1.81 (+0.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
36m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $89.88 | 102 | $9,167.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $89.56 | 102 | $9,134.61 | $9,176.21 |
$-33.15 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $89.85 | 102 | $9,164.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $89.98 | 102 | $9,177.96 | $9,189.47 |
+$13.26 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 10:40am ET | $89.26 | 102 | $9,104.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.28 | 102 | $9,004.56 | $9,089.81 |
$-99.66 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:50am ET | $88.79 | 102 | $9,056.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.18 | 102 | $8,892.36 | $8,926.10 |
$-163.71 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:20am ET | $87.40 | 102 | $8,914.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.18 | 102 | $8,789.85 | $8,801.14 |
$-124.96 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.69 | 102 | $8,740.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.62 | 102 | $8,835.24 | $8,895.49 |
+$94.35 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:30am ET | $86.76 | 102 | $8,850.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.51 | 102 | $8,824.02 | $8,869.48 |
$-26.01 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $86.22 | 102 | $8,794.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.43 | 102 | $8,815.86 | $8,890.39 |
+$20.91 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $86.67 | 102 | $8,839.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.10 | 102 | $8,884.20 | $8,934.76 |
+$44.37 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:45am ET | $86.81 | 102 | $8,854.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.49 | 102 | $8,821.47 | $8,902.12 |
$-32.64 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.11 | 103 | $8,869.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.35 | 103 | $8,791.05 | $8,823.84 |
$-78.28 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,823.84
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,176.16
Total Return:
-11.76%