ADBE Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 33 trades in period
+2.31%
Last 3 Months Return
$5,947.48
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$5,813.21
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality
8.6/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 8.6
30-Day Momentum
9
-14.5%
30d Return
30%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$5,813.21
Current Value
$5,947.48
Period P&L
$134.30
Max Drawdown
-40.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
20 /
13
Best Trade
+3.60%
Worst Trade
-4.53%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$420,501.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$134.30
Net P&L (after fees)
$134.30
Gross Return
+2.31%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.31%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $5,813.21 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 11:30am ET | $200.10 | 29 | $5,802.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $193.92 | 29 | $5,623.68 | $5,633.96 |
$-179.22 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 11:50am ET | $200.79 | 28 | $5,622.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $206.02 | 28 | $5,768.70 | $5,780.54 |
+$146.58 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 10:20am ET | $204.80 | 28 | $5,734.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $210.01 | 28 | $5,880.28 | $5,926.42 |
+$145.88 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $217.47 | 27 | $5,871.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.52 | 27 | $6,008.04 | $6,062.77 |
+$136.35 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $219.60 | 27 | $5,929.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $226.50 | 27 | $6,115.50 | $6,249.20 |
+$186.43 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 10:20am ET | $226.89 | 27 | $6,126.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 11:40am ET | $231.63 | 27 | $6,253.88 | $6,377.05 |
+$127.85 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 1:10pm ET | $222.82 | 28 | $6,238.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $228.96 | 28 | $6,410.74 | $6,548.82 |
+$171.78 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 10:00am ET | $224.47 | 29 | $6,509.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 12:15pm ET | $229.12 | 29 | $6,644.38 | $6,683.57 |
+$134.75 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 12:15pm ET | $234.21 | 28 | $6,557.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $238.93 | 28 | $6,690.04 | $6,815.73 |
+$132.16 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 1:40pm ET | $234.55 | 29 | $6,801.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 12:05pm ET | $227.46 | 29 | $6,596.20 | $6,609.98 |
$-205.76 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 1:25pm ET | $220.66 | 29 | $6,399.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $213.98 | 29 | $6,205.42 | $6,416.26 |
$-193.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 11:35am ET | $223.44 | 28 | $6,256.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $230.82 | 28 | $6,462.96 | $6,622.90 |
+$206.64 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 10:55am ET | $248.74 | 26 | $6,467.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 12:45pm ET | $253.87 | 26 | $6,600.62 | $6,756.28 |
+$133.38 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 1:15pm ET | $262.41 | 25 | $6,560.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $251.55 | 25 | $6,288.75 | $6,484.78 |
$-271.50 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:20am ET | $243.90 | 26 | $6,341.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 1:05pm ET | $249.02 | 26 | $6,474.52 | $6,617.90 |
+$133.12 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 1:40pm ET | $253.47 | 26 | $6,590.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $260.35 | 26 | $6,768.97 | $6,796.65 |
+$178.75 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $251.74 | 26 | $6,545.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 11:40am ET | $257.10 | 26 | $6,684.47 | $6,936.01 |
+$139.36 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 12:05pm ET | $264.58 | 26 | $6,879.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $270.08 | 26 | $7,022.21 | $7,079.01 |
+$143.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 10:50am ET | $269.86 | 26 | $7,016.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $257.64 | 26 | $6,698.64 | $6,761.29 |
$-317.72 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 10:30am ET | $260.95 | 25 | $6,523.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 2:40pm ET | $266.58 | 25 | $6,664.50 | $6,902.04 |
+$140.75 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 3:30pm ET | $264.60 | 26 | $6,879.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $255.93 | 26 | $6,654.18 | $6,676.62 |
$-225.42 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 10:40am ET | $262.20 | 25 | $6,555.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $267.86 | 25 | $6,696.50 | $6,818.12 |
+$141.50 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:10am ET | $271.02 | 25 | $6,775.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 10:55am ET | $276.57 | 25 | $6,914.25 | $6,956.75 |
+$138.63 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 2:10pm ET | $275.83 | 25 | $6,895.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $265.52 | 25 | $6,638.00 | $6,698.87 |
$-257.88 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $285.02 | 23 | $6,555.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $290.83 | 23 | $6,689.09 | $6,832.61 |
+$133.74 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 11:40am ET | $292.61 | 23 | $6,730.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $283.71 | 23 | $6,525.33 | $6,627.80 |
$-204.81 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 11:40am ET | $292.61 | 23 | $6,730.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $285.82 | 23 | $6,573.75 | $6,471.40 |
$-156.40 (-2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 12:55pm ET | $268.08 | 24 | $6,433.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $256.90 | 24 | $6,165.60 | $6,203.20 |
$-268.20 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $256.21 | 24 | $6,149.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 1:45pm ET | $247.81 | 24 | $5,947.44 | $6,001.60 |
$-201.60 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 1:45pm ET | $252.27 | 23 | $5,802.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.36 | 23 | $6,011.28 | $6,210.67 |
+$209.07 (+3.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $261.41 | 23 | $6,012.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $252.68 | 23 | $5,811.53 | $6,009.76 |
$-200.91 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $246.79 | 24 | $5,923.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 3:45pm ET | $251.95 | 24 | $6,046.68 | $6,133.36 |
+$123.60 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.2h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $248.65 | 24 | $5,967.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 11:30am ET | $240.91 | 24 | $5,781.84 | $5,947.48 |
$-185.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,947.48
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,052.52
Total Return:
-40.53%