Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:35:14

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.7/35
Total Return
9.5/25
Win Rate
6.5/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 23.8/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 22.7

30-Day Momentum

32
+4.4%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
3
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 52.5 Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,631.98
Current Value
$11,278.17
Period P&L
$-1,353.81
Max Drawdown
-27.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.29

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
8 / 8
Best Trade
+2.84%
Worst Trade
-5.25%
Avg Trade Return
-0.70%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$383,213.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,353.81
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,353.81
Gross Return
-10.72%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.72%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,631.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 2:05pm ET $263.42 48 $12,644.16
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 2:05pm ET $263.44 48 $12,645.12 $12,661.02 +$0.96
(+0.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 2:55pm ET $263.56 48 $12,650.88
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:05am ET $271.05 48 $13,010.40 $13,020.54 +$359.52
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.2h held
3 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 11:00am ET $273.40 47 $12,849.80
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $270.16 47 $12,697.52 $12,868.26 $-152.28
(-1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
4 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $266.35 48 $12,784.80
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $263.84 48 $12,664.42 $12,747.88 $-120.38
(-0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
5 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:40am ET $260.29 48 $12,493.92
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 11:50am ET $265.57 48 $12,747.12 $13,001.08 +$253.20
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
6 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 12:10pm ET $268.85 48 $12,904.80
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 12:10pm ET $269.90 48 $12,955.20 $13,051.48 +$50.40
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
7 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 2:15pm ET $272.13 47 $12,790.11
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:40am ET $263.11 47 $12,366.40 $12,627.77 $-423.71
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:50am ET $259.98 48 $12,479.28
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:50am ET $251.88 48 $12,090.24 $12,238.73 $-389.04
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 10:55am ET $253.65 48 $12,175.20
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $245.97 48 $11,806.56 $11,870.09 $-368.64
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:50am ET $248.41 47 $11,675.27
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:55pm ET $240.88 47 $11,321.59 $11,516.41 $-353.68
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 1:35pm ET $238.28 48 $11,437.30
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $243.21 48 $11,674.08 $11,753.19 +$236.78
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 11:30am ET $246.08 47 $11,565.76
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:00pm ET $238.36 47 $11,202.92 $11,390.35 $-362.84
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:55am ET $238.76 47 $11,221.72
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $226.23 47 $10,632.81 $10,801.44 $-588.91
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 9:50am ET $226.54 47 $10,647.38
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 10:45am ET $231.58 47 $10,884.26 $11,038.32 +$236.88
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
55m held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 11:05am ET $243.36 45 $10,951.20
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $243.63 45 $10,963.13 $11,050.24 +$11.92
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:30am ET $245.03 45 $11,026.35
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $250.10 45 $11,254.28 $11,278.17 +$227.93
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,278.17
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,278.17
Total Return: +12.78%
Back to Rebel Contraire