Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 21:19:51

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.18%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.2/35
Total Return
8.4/25
Win Rate
6.0/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 21.3/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 21.2

30-Day Momentum

5
-1.7%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 6.8 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,801.44
Current Value
$10,912.76
Period P&L
$111.33
Max Drawdown
-27.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
9 / 11
Best Trade
+11.15%
Worst Trade
-5.25%
Avg Trade Return
-0.16%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$441,407.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$111.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$111.33
Gross Return
+1.03%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.03%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $10,801.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:55am ET $238.76 47 $11,221.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $226.23 47 $10,632.81 $10,801.44 $-588.91
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 9:50am ET $226.54 47 $10,647.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 10:45am ET $231.58 47 $10,884.26 $11,038.32 +$236.88
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
55m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 11:05am ET $243.36 45 $10,951.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $243.63 45 $10,963.13 $11,050.24 +$11.92
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:30am ET $245.03 45 $11,026.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $250.10 45 $11,254.28 $11,278.17 +$227.93
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 11:45am ET $248.25 45 $11,171.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:00am ET $253.46 45 $11,405.48 $11,512.40 +$234.23
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 2:15pm ET $253.62 45 $11,412.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $245.95 45 $11,067.75 $11,167.25 $-345.15
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:55am ET $248.57 44 $10,937.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $236.28 44 $10,396.32 $10,626.48 $-540.76
(-4.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 1:05pm ET $233.18 45 $10,493.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 1:05pm ET $230.13 45 $10,355.85 $10,489.01 $-137.47
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 1:55pm ET $237.62 44 $10,455.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $264.11 44 $11,620.84 $11,654.79 +$1,165.78
(+11.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.6h held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 10:05am ET $284.01 41 $11,644.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 11:30am ET $275.30 41 $11,287.50 $11,297.88 $-356.91
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 11:45am ET $273.65 41 $11,219.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 11:20am ET $279.18 41 $11,446.38 $11,524.61 +$226.73
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:40am ET $272.57 42 $11,447.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET $264.24 42 $11,098.08 $11,174.75 $-349.86
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:35am ET $261.60 42 $10,987.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $259.87 42 $10,914.54 $11,101.99 $-72.76
(-0.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:35am ET $261.60 42 $10,987.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $261.27 42 $10,973.55 $11,088.24 $-13.75
(-0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
9d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $257.92 42 $10,832.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:45am ET $263.63 42 $11,072.46 $11,328.06 +$239.82
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 12:25pm ET $260.95 43 $11,220.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $256.89 43 $11,046.48 $11,153.69 $-174.37
(-1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 10:40am ET $252.13 44 $11,093.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:00pm ET $257.25 44 $11,319.00 $11,378.97 +$225.28
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:55am ET $252.64 45 $11,368.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:20pm ET $244.88 45 $11,019.82 $11,030.08 $-348.89
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $251.44 43 $10,811.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $256.52 43 $11,030.36 $11,248.52 +$218.44
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.7d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $256.09 43 $11,011.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET $248.28 43 $10,676.11 $10,912.76 $-335.76
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,912.76
Net Profit/Loss: +$912.76
Total Return: +9.13%
Back to Rebel Contraire