Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:37:52

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 11.6/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 10.9

30-Day Momentum

32
+6.1%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 47.8 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,930.54
Current Value
$8,193.01
Period P&L
$262.47
Max Drawdown
-23.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
11 / 6
Best Trade
+5.59%
Worst Trade
-3.63%
Avg Trade Return
+0.21%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$269,297.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$262.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$262.47
Gross Return
+3.31%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.31%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $7,930.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 2:20pm ET $76.93 103 $7,923.79
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $74.14 103 $7,636.42 $7,691.58 $-287.37
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 12:25pm ET $75.44 101 $7,619.44
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 11:35am ET $77.06 101 $7,783.06 $7,855.20 +$163.62
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held
3 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 11:40am ET $77.78 100 $7,778.00
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 3:25pm ET $79.37 100 $7,937.00 $8,014.20 +$159.00
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
4 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 3:25pm ET $77.41 103 $7,973.23
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 10:00am ET $79.00 103 $8,137.00 $8,177.97 +$163.77
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
5 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 10:30am ET $78.26 104 $8,139.04
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:35am ET $75.88 104 $7,891.52 $7,930.45 $-247.52
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
6 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:40am ET $74.73 106 $7,921.38
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 1:20pm ET $76.30 106 $8,087.80 $8,096.87 +$166.42
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
7 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 1:55pm ET $77.16 104 $8,024.64
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 1:55pm ET $77.95 104 $8,106.80 $8,179.03 +$82.16
(+1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
8 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 2:55pm ET $80.75 101 $8,156.25
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 12:10pm ET $82.38 101 $8,319.88 $8,342.65 +$163.62
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 12:15pm ET $81.13 102 $8,275.26
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $78.48 102 $8,005.16 $8,072.55 $-270.10
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 11:40am ET $80.43 100 $8,043.00
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $77.95 100 $7,795.00 $7,824.55 $-248.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:55am ET $75.82 103 $7,809.46
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:55am ET $73.27 103 $7,546.81 $7,561.90 $-262.65
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 12:10pm ET $74.38 101 $7,512.38
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 11:10am ET $75.89 101 $7,664.39 $7,713.91 +$152.01
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $79.74 96 $7,654.56
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $79.83 96 $7,663.35 $7,722.70 +$8.79
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET $76.92 100 $7,692.00
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 11:35am ET $78.70 100 $7,870.00 $7,900.70 +$178.00
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 2:05pm ET $80.46 98 $7,885.57
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:00am ET $82.12 98 $8,047.76 $8,062.89 +$162.19
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET $76.92 100 $7,692.00
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $81.22 100 $8,122.00 $8,492.89 +$430.00
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:40am ET $82.76 102 $8,441.52
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $79.82 102 $8,141.64 $8,193.01 $-299.88
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,193.01
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,806.99
Total Return: -18.07%
Back to Rebel Contraire