ARM Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 35 trades in period
-22.03%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,631.64
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$16,201.20
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
29
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.9/35
Total Return
12.4/25
Win Rate
8.3/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
29.5/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 29.0
30-Day Momentum
55
+12.7%
30d Return
73%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 61.7
Conf: 0.90×
Accelerating (+26 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$16,201.20
Current Value
$12,631.64
Period P&L
$-3,569.54
Max Drawdown
-36.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
19 /
16
Best Trade
+4.55%
Worst Trade
-9.00%
Avg Trade Return
-0.63%
Avg Hold Time
22.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$850,824.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,569.54
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,569.54
Gross Return
-22.03%
Net Return (after fees)
-22.03%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $16,201.20 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 12:40pm ET | $355.74 | 45 | $16,008.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $332.77 | 45 | $14,974.65 | $15,167.54 |
$-1,033.65 (-6.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $318.36 | 47 | $14,962.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $305.12 | 47 | $14,340.64 | $14,545.30 |
$-622.24 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 10:35am ET | $357.86 | 40 | $14,314.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $336.45 | 40 | $13,458.07 | $13,689.17 |
$-856.13 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $338.27 | 40 | $13,531.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $327.24 | 40 | $13,089.60 | $13,247.77 |
$-441.40 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 10:50am ET | $331.00 | 40 | $13,240.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $305.93 | 40 | $12,237.20 | $12,244.97 |
$-1,002.80 (-7.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 10:10am ET | $307.00 | 39 | $11,973.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 11:20am ET | $297.21 | 39 | $11,591.19 | $11,863.16 |
$-381.81 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $333.41 | 35 | $11,669.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $321.97 | 35 | $11,268.95 | $11,462.76 |
$-400.40 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $295.99 | 38 | $11,247.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $302.11 | 38 | $11,480.37 | $11,695.51 |
+$232.75 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $280.44 | 41 | $11,498.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 11:20am ET | $286.52 | 41 | $11,747.34 | $11,944.81 |
+$249.30 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 11:20am ET | $271.10 | 44 | $11,928.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 3:40pm ET | $276.91 | 44 | $12,184.08 | $12,200.49 |
+$255.68 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $243.87 | 50 | $12,193.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $252.19 | 50 | $12,609.50 | $12,616.48 |
+$416.00 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $272.13 | 46 | $12,517.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $282.16 | 46 | $12,979.36 | $13,077.86 |
+$461.38 (+3.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 10:10am ET | $282.73 | 46 | $13,005.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $271.72 | 46 | $12,499.12 | $12,571.18 |
$-506.69 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $262.50 | 47 | $12,337.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:35am ET | $254.05 | 47 | $11,940.58 | $12,174.38 |
$-396.79 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 12:10pm ET | $244.49 | 49 | $11,979.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $235.60 | 49 | $11,544.16 | $11,738.65 |
$-435.73 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $239.28 | 49 | $11,724.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 12:15pm ET | $244.94 | 49 | $12,002.06 | $12,015.97 |
+$277.32 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $244.72 | 49 | $11,991.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.71 | 49 | $10,912.59 | $10,937.28 |
$-1,078.69 (-9.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $262.74 | 41 | $10,772.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $270.22 | 41 | $11,079.02 | $11,243.96 |
+$306.68 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $272.16 | 41 | $11,158.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 11:40am ET | $278.39 | 41 | $11,413.99 | $11,499.39 |
+$255.43 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 12:00pm ET | $287.30 | 40 | $11,492.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $298.66 | 40 | $11,946.40 | $11,953.79 |
+$454.40 (+4.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 10:20am ET | $270.83 | 44 | $11,916.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $276.92 | 44 | $12,184.48 | $12,221.75 |
+$267.96 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $276.71 | 44 | $12,175.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $256.07 | 44 | $11,267.15 | $11,313.66 |
$-908.09 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 10:00am ET | $247.74 | 45 | $11,148.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $253.46 | 45 | $11,405.70 | $11,571.06 |
+$257.40 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $237.31 | 48 | $11,390.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.73 | 48 | $11,795.04 | $11,975.22 |
+$404.16 (+3.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $240.53 | 49 | $11,785.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $246.67 | 49 | $12,086.83 | $12,276.08 |
+$300.86 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $251.22 | 48 | $12,058.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 11:50am ET | $243.51 | 48 | $11,688.48 | $11,906.00 |
$-370.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 11:50am ET | $238.99 | 49 | $11,710.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $231.30 | 49 | $11,333.70 | $11,529.19 |
$-376.81 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $231.72 | 49 | $11,354.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $236.47 | 49 | $11,587.03 | $11,761.94 |
+$232.75 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 11:25am ET | $251.93 | 46 | $11,588.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $261.48 | 46 | $12,028.08 | $12,201.24 |
+$439.30 (+3.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $268.28 | 45 | $12,072.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $252.10 | 45 | $11,344.50 | $11,473.14 |
$-728.10 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 12:35pm ET | $258.50 | 44 | $11,374.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 1:25pm ET | $265.32 | 44 | $11,674.08 | $11,773.22 |
+$300.08 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $242.05 | 48 | $11,618.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $250.61 | 48 | $12,029.13 | $12,183.95 |
+$410.73 (+3.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.5h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 10:35am ET | $246.78 | 49 | $12,092.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $258.01 | 49 | $12,642.49 | $12,734.22 |
+$550.27 (+4.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 1:05pm ET | $267.32 | 47 | $12,564.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $273.90 | 47 | $12,873.30 | $13,043.48 |
+$309.26 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 11:30am ET | $328.21 | 39 | $12,800.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $317.65 | 39 | $12,388.54 | $12,631.64 |
$-411.84 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,631.64
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,631.64
Total Return:
+26.32%