AVAXUSD Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 43 trades in period
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026
Quality Components
30-Day Momentum
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
💸 Capital Refund History
When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.
| # | Date | Capital Before | Trades Before | Era Fees Paid | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nov 1, 2024 | $98.92 | 712 | $9,817.92 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
| 2 | Oct 10, 2025 | $97.56 | 1,650 | $11,505.92 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 2 times. Total capital invested: $30,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.
📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures
Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.
📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $1,164.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $8.44 | 142 | $1,196.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET | $8.10 | 142 | $1,148.67 | $1,142.81 |
$-53.60 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $7.79 | 147 | $1,142.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $8.07 | 147 | $1,184.11 | $1,178.29 |
+$35.48 (+3.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:15pm ET | $8.33 | 141 | $1,178.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:35am ET | $8.50 | 141 | $1,202.34 | $1,196.38 |
+$18.10 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:15am ET | $8.54 | 140 | $1,196.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 8:00am ET | $8.74 | 140 | $1,224.40 | $1,218.35 |
+$21.97 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:05am ET | $8.75 | 139 | $1,218.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.93 | 139 | $1,243.41 | $1,237.26 |
+$18.91 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $8.89 | 139 | $1,237.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $9.07 | 139 | $1,262.31 | $1,256.06 |
+$18.80 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $9.17 | 137 | $1,256.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 6:00pm ET | $9.36 | 137 | $1,282.09 | $1,275.74 |
+$19.68 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 6:15pm ET | $9.24 | 138 | $1,275.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 5:30am ET | $8.94 | 138 | $1,234.32 | $1,228.05 |
$-47.70 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 5:35am ET | $8.93 | 138 | $1,228.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 7:15am ET | $9.23 | 138 | $1,269.30 | $1,263.06 |
+$35.01 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 8:10am ET | $9.10 | 139 | $1,263.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 12:05pm ET | $9.29 | 139 | $1,289.23 | $1,282.85 |
+$19.79 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:00pm ET | $9.22 | 139 | $1,282.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:25am ET | $8.94 | 139 | $1,243.66 | $1,237.34 |
$-45.51 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:30am ET | $8.87 | 139 | $1,237.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $9.06 | 139 | $1,263.27 | $1,257.02 |
+$19.68 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.2h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:15pm ET | $9.11 | 138 | $1,257.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:40am ET | $8.83 | 138 | $1,218.00 | $1,211.81 |
$-45.21 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:50am ET | $8.75 | 138 | $1,211.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $8.83 | 138 | $1,223.01 | $1,216.92 |
+$5.11 (+0.9%) |
📅 Sim Ended
10.7h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:10pm ET | $8.78 | 139 | $1,216.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 5:00am ET | $8.51 | 139 | $1,179.74 | $1,179.74 |
$-43.17 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 7:45am ET | $8.58 | 138 | $1,179.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:05am ET | $8.78 | 138 | $1,206.80 | $1,206.80 |
+$21.09 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $8.44 | 143 | $1,206.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 11:10am ET | $8.64 | 143 | $1,234.39 | $1,234.39 |
+$21.50 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 11:45am ET | $8.50 | 145 | $1,234.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:20pm ET | $8.69 | 145 | $1,262.50 | $1,262.50 |
+$21.86 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 1:35pm ET | $9.13 | 138 | $1,262.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:40pm ET | $8.85 | 138 | $1,223.51 | $1,223.51 |
$-45.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 8:45am ET | $8.67 | 141 | $1,223.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.86 | 141 | $1,250.32 | $1,250.32 |
+$20.63 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 10:55am ET | $8.81 | 142 | $1,250.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 12:40am ET | $8.99 | 142 | $1,275.87 | $1,275.87 |
+$19.23 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 4:30am ET | $9.23 | 138 | $1,275.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 8:35am ET | $8.95 | 138 | $1,237.17 | $1,237.17 |
$-44.99 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 8:40am ET | $8.93 | 139 | $1,237.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $9.11 | 139 | $1,262.11 | $1,262.11 |
+$18.69 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $9.06 | 139 | $1,262.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 21, 2026 4:25am ET | $9.25 | 139 | $1,288.58 | $1,288.58 |
+$20.09 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 21, 2026 10:30am ET | $9.26 | 139 | $1,288.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 1:15am ET | $8.97 | 139 | $1,248.22 | $1,248.22 |
$-46.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 7:10am ET | $8.95 | 139 | $1,248.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 8:10pm ET | $8.53 | 139 | $1,189.64 | $1,189.64 |
$-64.67 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 10:20pm ET | $8.39 | 142 | $1,189.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 1:50am ET | $8.56 | 142 | $1,213.74 | $1,213.74 |
+$18.10 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $8.43 | 144 | $1,213.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 8:20pm ET | $8.63 | 144 | $1,242.54 | $1,242.54 |
+$22.66 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 1:50am ET | $8.50 | 146 | $1,242.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 4:25am ET | $8.69 | 146 | $1,270.31 | $1,270.31 |
+$21.49 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 6:05am ET | $8.78 | 145 | $1,270.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 6:45am ET | $8.96 | 145 | $1,296.35 | $1,296.35 |
+$19.63 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:20pm ET | $9.67 | 134 | $1,296.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:50am ET | $9.35 | 134 | $1,253.45 | $1,253.45 |
$-49.27 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.5h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:20pm ET | $9.67 | 134 | $1,296.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $9.29 | 134 | $1,245.41 | $1,202.51 |
$-57.30 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 6:05pm ET | $9.31 | 129 | $1,202.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 6:45am ET | $9.01 | 129 | $1,163.76 | $1,163.76 |
$-44.66 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 8:30am ET | $8.98 | 130 | $1,163.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:35am ET | $8.64 | 130 | $1,119.70 | $1,119.70 |
$-49.77 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.1h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:55am ET | $8.53 | 131 | $1,119.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 2:40am ET | $8.71 | 131 | $1,143.33 | $1,143.33 |
+$17.97 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 3:00am ET | $8.61 | 133 | $1,143.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:35pm ET | $8.79 | 133 | $1,167.23 | $1,167.23 |
+$18.13 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.6h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $8.86 | 132 | $1,167.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 3:20pm ET | $9.10 | 132 | $1,198.85 | $1,198.85 |
+$25.70 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 10:15pm ET | $9.30 | 129 | $1,198.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 11:50am ET | $8.98 | 129 | $1,157.60 | $1,157.60 |
$-47.14 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.6h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 3:40pm ET | $8.86 | 131 | $1,157.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 6:10pm ET | $9.07 | 131 | $1,185.04 | $1,185.04 |
+$21.58 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 8:25pm ET | $9.09 | 130 | $1,185.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $9.30 | 130 | $1,212.42 | $1,212.42 |
+$21.38 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.8h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 12:45pm ET | $9.21 | 132 | $1,212.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 4:15am ET | $9.41 | 132 | $1,238.75 | $1,238.75 |
+$20.20 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $9.37 | 132 | $1,238.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $9.59 | 132 | $1,267.83 | $1,267.83 |
+$22.82 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 12:05pm ET | $9.57 | 132 | $1,267.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $9.78 | 132 | $1,295.65 | $1,295.65 |
+$21.41 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
+ 2 refunds ($20,000)