Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-21 13:58:56

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
36.8 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-5.4%
EMA20 Dist
-4.3%
ATR%
2.6%
Range Pos
26%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

32
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.3/35
Total Return
12.6/25
Win Rate
6.0/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 32.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 32.4

30-Day Momentum

13
+0.5%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.0 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-19 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,984.41
Current Value
$13,206.58
Period P&L
$1,222.15
Max Drawdown
-17.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.23

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
12 / 8
Best Trade
+4.44%
Worst Trade
-3.56%
Avg Trade Return
+0.53%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$496,515.26
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,222.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,222.15
Gross Return
+10.20%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.20%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $11,984.41 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $965.44 12 $11,585.28
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $969.38 12 $11,632.56 $11,984.43 +$47.28
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $961.54 12 $11,538.48
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $984.90 12 $11,818.80 $12,264.75 +$280.32
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET $976.44 12 $11,717.28
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 10:10am ET $943.15 12 $11,317.74 $11,865.21 $-399.54
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 11:50am ET $947.14 12 $11,365.62
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $978.99 12 $11,747.88 $12,247.47 +$382.26
(+3.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $932.00 13 $12,116.00
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:20am ET $953.41 13 $12,394.33 $12,525.80 +$278.33
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
50m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:40am ET $959.41 13 $12,472.27
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $1,001.99 13 $13,025.87 $13,079.40 +$553.60
(+4.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET $994.37 13 $12,926.81
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 1:00pm ET $1,014.62 13 $13,190.06 $13,342.65 +$263.25
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:10pm ET $1,056.46 12 $12,677.52
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 11:00am ET $1,024.65 12 $12,295.80 $12,960.93 $-381.72
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 11:20am ET $1,059.20 12 $12,710.40
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 11:20am ET $1,057.52 12 $12,690.18 $12,940.71 $-20.22
(-0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 11:30am ET $1,061.86 12 $12,742.38
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 11:30am ET $1,053.46 12 $12,641.52 $12,839.85 $-100.86
(-0.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 11:30am ET $1,035.73 12 $12,428.82
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 10:30am ET $1,058.48 12 $12,701.76 $13,112.79 +$272.94
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
23h held
12 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 10:45am ET $1,077.21 12 $12,926.52
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 10:45am ET $1,076.18 12 $12,914.16 $13,100.43 $-12.36
(-0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
13 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 10:55am ET $1,070.85 12 $12,850.20
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 10:55am ET $1,080.86 12 $12,970.38 $13,220.61 +$120.18
(+0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
14 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 12:45pm ET $1,091.98 12 $13,103.76
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 12:45pm ET $1,085.79 12 $13,029.51 $13,146.36 $-74.25
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
15 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 1:00pm ET $1,045.89 12 $12,550.68
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $1,069.25 12 $12,831.00 $13,426.68 +$280.32
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
16 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 10:15am ET $1,074.38 12 $12,892.50
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $1,044.37 12 $12,532.44 $13,066.62 $-360.06
(-2.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:50am ET $1,028.32 12 $12,339.90
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET $991.68 12 $11,900.16 $12,626.88 $-439.74
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:55am ET $1,005.26 12 $12,063.12
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 9:55am ET $1,008.58 12 $12,102.96 $12,666.72 +$39.84
(+0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:35am ET $1,005.05 12 $12,060.56
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $1,028.15 12 $12,337.80 $12,943.96 +$277.24
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 10:10am ET $1,046.23 12 $12,554.82
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 12:55pm ET $1,068.12 12 $12,817.44 $13,206.58 +$262.62
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,206.58
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,206.58
Total Return: +32.07%
Back to Rebel Contraire