Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:15:59

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
36.8 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-5.4%
EMA20 Dist
-4.3%
ATR%
2.6%
Range Pos
26%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

32
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.4/35
Total Return
12.6/25
Win Rate
5.9/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 32.5/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 32.2

30-Day Momentum

4
-9.7%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-28 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,991
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$173.25
Current Value
$13,230.14
Period P&L
$129.62
Max Drawdown
-17.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
11 / 9
Best Trade
+6.75%
Worst Trade
-5.05%
Avg Trade Return
+0.19%
Avg Hold Time
4.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$537,402.91
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$129.62
Net P&L (after fees)
$129.62
Gross Return
+74.82%
Net Return (after fees)
+74.82%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $173.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:25pm ET $982.39 13 $12,771.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 10:05am ET $1,002.33 13 $13,030.29 $13,047.36 +$259.22
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 11:50am ET $979.57 13 $12,734.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 11:15am ET $948.97 13 $12,336.61 $12,649.56 $-397.80
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 11:40am ET $959.88 13 $12,478.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 11:40am ET $979.60 13 $12,734.80 $12,905.92 +$256.36
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:25pm ET $982.39 13 $12,771.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $999.32 13 $12,991.16 $13,126.01 +$220.09
(+1.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:35am ET $1,005.88 13 $13,076.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $1,034.85 13 $13,453.11 $13,502.69 +$376.68
(+2.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET $1,027.09 13 $13,352.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,096.39 13 $14,253.07 $14,403.53 +$900.84
(+6.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 11:40am ET $1,095.48 13 $14,241.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:45am ET $1,059.89 13 $13,778.57 $13,940.86 $-462.67
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 10:15am ET $1,059.59 13 $13,774.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $1,066.85 13 $13,869.11 $14,035.30 +$94.45
(+0.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 10:40am ET $1,078.41 13 $14,019.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 1:00pm ET $1,100.44 13 $14,305.72 $14,321.69 +$286.39
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 2:15pm ET $1,098.76 13 $14,283.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 2:15pm ET $1,121.65 13 $14,581.39 $14,619.26 +$297.57
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 3:30pm ET $1,136.39 12 $13,636.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET $1,134.19 12 $13,610.22 $14,592.80 $-26.46
(-0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:25am ET $1,141.97 12 $13,703.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET $1,167.00 12 $14,004.00 $14,893.16 +$300.36
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET $1,178.91 12 $14,146.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:35am ET $1,158.24 12 $13,898.88 $14,645.12 $-248.04
(-1.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:40am ET $1,150.61 12 $13,807.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 9:40am ET $1,167.70 12 $14,012.40 $14,850.14 +$205.02
(+1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 11:15am ET $1,174.22 12 $14,090.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 11:15am ET $1,152.19 12 $13,826.28 $14,585.78 $-264.36
(-1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 11:15am ET $1,174.22 12 $14,090.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:35am ET $1,114.90 12 $13,378.80 $13,873.94 $-711.84
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 11:35am ET $1,118.44 12 $13,421.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:45am ET $1,083.90 12 $13,006.80 $13,459.46 $-414.48
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:10pm ET $1,070.10 12 $12,841.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 1:10pm ET $1,056.00 12 $12,672.00 $13,290.26 $-169.20
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:25pm ET $1,050.85 12 $12,610.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:20pm ET $1,019.06 12 $12,228.72 $12,908.78 $-381.48
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:50pm ET $1,052.43 12 $12,629.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $1,079.21 12 $12,950.52 $13,230.14 +$321.36
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,230.14
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,230.14
Total Return: +32.30%
Back to Rebel Contraire