Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-21 11:30:52

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.3/10
Raw Quality 10.1/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 10.0

30-Day Momentum

13
-22.4%
30d Return
48%
Win Rate
27
Trades
0.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 13.1 Conf: 1.00×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,683
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-21 → 2026-06-21
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$531.41
Current Value
$542.46
Period P&L
$-287.63
Max Drawdown
-95.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
61
Winners / Losers
34 / 27
Best Trade
+2.77%
Worst Trade
-6.99%
Avg Trade Return
-0.28%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$76,597.06
Estimated Fees
$191.49
Gross P&L
$-287.63
Net P&L (after fees)
$-479.13
Gross Return
-54.13%
Net Return (after fees)
-90.16%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 61 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $531.41 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 12:25pm ET $73,065.90 0 $683.02
🔴 SELL Mar 21, 2026 10:25pm ET $69,075.00 0 $645.71 $627.99 $-40.63
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.4d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 21, 2026 11:50pm ET $69,300.60 0 $627.99
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 7:10am ET $71,222.00 0 $645.40 $645.40 +$14.23
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.3d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 8:05am ET $69,785.90 0 $645.40
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:45am ET $71,249.60 0 $658.94 $658.94 +$10.28
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 10:50am ET $71,148.30 0 $658.94
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 1:45pm ET $68,938.60 0 $638.47 $638.47 $-23.71
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 3:30pm ET $69,450.40 0 $638.47
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 8:40pm ET $70,896.60 0 $651.77 $651.77 +$10.07
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.2h held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 8:55pm ET $70,824.70 0 $651.77
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 1:50pm ET $68,687.00 0 $632.10 $632.10 $-22.88
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 2:20pm ET $68,215.10 0 $632.10
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET $66,115.90 0 $612.65 $612.65 $-22.56
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 10:25am ET $65,860.00 0 $612.65
🔴 SELL Mar 29, 2026 11:30pm ET $67,214.50 0 $625.25 $625.25 +$9.51
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.5d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 29, 2026 11:35pm ET $67,152.10 0 $625.25
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 1:25am ET $68,623.10 0 $638.95 $638.95 +$10.54
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 3:20am ET $68,858.10 0 $638.95
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 10:45pm ET $66,764.80 0 $619.53 $619.53 $-22.57
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.4h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 11:20pm ET $66,735.80 0 $619.53
🔴 SELL Apr 5, 2026 6:50pm ET $68,110.30 0 $632.29 $632.29 +$9.63
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 5, 2026 8:35pm ET $69,087.60 0 $632.29
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 6:35pm ET $70,929.80 0 $649.15 $649.15 +$13.66
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 8:00pm ET $71,915.60 0 $649.15
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 4:30pm ET $73,453.40 0 $663.03 $663.03 +$10.60
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 5:10pm ET $73,229.30 0 $663.03
🔴 SELL Apr 12, 2026 9:40am ET $70,989.60 0 $642.75 $642.75 $-23.54
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 12, 2026 9:45am ET $70,999.90 0 $642.75
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 1:30pm ET $72,561.30 0 $656.89 $656.89 +$10.89
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 1:55pm ET $72,160.30 0 $656.89
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 6:15pm ET $73,881.90 0 $672.56 $672.56 +$12.35
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 7:20pm ET $74,643.10 0 $672.56
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 5:30am ET $76,294.80 0 $687.44 $687.44 +$11.48
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.4d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 6:10am ET $75,693.80 0 $687.44
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:55am ET $77,286.90 0 $701.91 $701.91 +$10.99
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 10:55am ET $77,793.80 0 $701.91
🔴 SELL Apr 19, 2026 2:10am ET $75,452.80 0 $680.79 $680.79 $-24.58
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 19, 2026 2:15am ET $75,335.80 0 $680.79
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 6:55am ET $76,850.10 0 $694.47 $694.47 +$10.25
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 7:05am ET $76,710.70 0 $694.47
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 1:25am ET $78,343.40 0 $709.25 $709.25 +$11.27
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 1:40am ET $78,015.60 0 $709.25
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 1:40am ET $77,751.40 0 $706.85 $706.85 $-5.94
(-0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 2:05am ET $77,711.90 0 $706.85
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 2:10pm ET $75,163.20 0 $683.67 $683.67 $-26.66
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 6:00pm ET $75,892.80 0 $683.67
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 4:25am ET $77,428.70 0 $697.51 $697.51 +$10.38
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.4d held
25 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 4:35am ET $77,385.80 0 $697.51
🔴 SELL May 3, 2026 4:25pm ET $78,946.50 0 $711.58 $711.58 +$10.54
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.5d held
26 🟢 BUY May 3, 2026 6:25pm ET $78,984.70 0 $711.58
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 10:40pm ET $80,708.20 0 $727.11 $727.11 +$11.93
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
27 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 12:00am ET $80,838.50 0 $727.11
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 7:20am ET $82,695.10 0 $743.81 $743.81 +$13.02
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.3d held
28 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 8:05am ET $82,344.80 0 $743.81
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET $79,850.10 0 $721.28 $721.28 $-26.20
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
29 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 12:40pm ET $79,776.80 0 $721.28
🔴 SELL May 10, 2026 12:00pm ET $81,407.00 0 $736.02 $736.02 +$11.10
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
30 🟢 BUY May 10, 2026 12:25pm ET $81,262.90 0 $736.02
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 12:10pm ET $78,742.70 0 $713.19 $713.19 $-26.45
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
31 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 4:30pm ET $79,609.40 0 $713.19
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 11:55am ET $81,279.90 0 $728.16 $728.16 +$11.36
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.4h held
32 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $81,593.00 0 $728.16
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:45am ET $79,040.60 0 $705.38 $705.38 $-26.36
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held
33 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:50am ET $78,960.30 0 $705.38
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 10:30am ET $76,577.10 0 $684.09 $684.09 $-24.76
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
34 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 10:35am ET $76,277.80 0 $684.09
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 8:50pm ET $77,898.50 0 $698.62 $698.63 +$11.08
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.4d held
35 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 10:50pm ET $77,899.10 0 $698.63
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 6:45pm ET $75,554.90 0 $677.61 $677.61 $-24.46
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
36 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 8:40pm ET $75,167.00 0 $677.61
🔴 SELL May 23, 2026 4:40pm ET $76,750.00 0 $691.88 $691.88 +$10.85
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
20h held
37 🟢 BUY May 23, 2026 6:15pm ET $76,551.50 0 $691.88
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 6:15pm ET $74,183.90 0 $670.48 $670.48 $-24.80
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
38 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 6:55pm ET $74,352.00 0 $670.48
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 8:10am ET $72,000.00 0 $649.27 $649.27 $-24.51
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.6d held
39 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 8:50am ET $72,076.00 0 $649.27
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 3:05am ET $69,799.90 0 $628.77 $628.77 $-23.70
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held
40 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 4:50am ET $69,704.90 0 $628.77
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 11:20am ET $67,588.20 0 $609.68 $609.68 $-22.19
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.5h held
41 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:25am ET $67,458.90 0 $609.68
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 3:50pm ET $65,294.80 0 $590.12 $590.12 $-22.56
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
42 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 4:40pm ET $65,103.40 0 $590.12
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 8:35pm ET $63,055.00 0 $571.55 $571.55 $-21.47
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held
43 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:25am ET $67,458.90 0 $609.68
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30pm ET $62,744.10 0 $567.07 $528.94 $-45.55
(-7.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held
44 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:55pm ET $62,099.90 0 $528.94
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:45pm ET $63,460.60 0 $540.53 $540.53 +$8.92
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
50m held
45 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 1:05am ET $63,772.20 0 $540.53
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET $61,383.90 0 $520.29 $520.29 $-22.90
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
46 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 3:05am ET $61,500.10 0 $520.29
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:35am ET $62,742.10 0 $530.79 $530.79 +$7.88
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
30m held
47 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 6:05am ET $62,656.90 0 $530.79
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:55am ET $60,700.10 0 $514.22 $514.22 $-19.19
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
48 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 10:00am ET $60,577.00 0 $514.22
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 5:00pm ET $61,798.50 0 $524.59 $524.59 +$7.77
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7h held
49 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 1:05am ET $63,772.20 0 $540.53
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2026 12:25am ET $60,137.30 0 $509.72 $493.78 $-33.43
(-5.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
50 🟢 BUY Jun 6, 2026 1:05am ET $59,876.80 0 $493.78
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2026 2:05am ET $61,100.30 0 $503.87 $503.87 +$7.60
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1h held
51 🟢 BUY Jun 6, 2026 3:25am ET $60,848.30 0 $503.87
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2026 2:35am ET $62,106.10 0 $514.29 $514.29 +$7.87
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held
52 🟢 BUY Jun 7, 2026 2:55am ET $62,025.20 0 $514.29
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2026 6:15pm ET $63,549.90 0 $526.93 $526.93 +$10.04
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
15.3h held
53 🟢 BUY Jun 7, 2026 6:25pm ET $62,913.90 0 $526.93
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $60,948.10 0 $510.47 $510.47 $-19.06
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
54 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 12:10pm ET $60,941.80 0 $510.47
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 9:45am ET $62,255.50 0 $521.47 $521.47 +$8.42
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held
55 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:00am ET $62,036.20 0 $521.47
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 1:45pm ET $63,381.00 0 $532.77 $532.77 +$8.67
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
56 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 2:10pm ET $63,283.50 0 $532.77
🔴 SELL Jun 13, 2026 7:20pm ET $64,549.90 0 $543.43 $543.43 +$7.97
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
57 🟢 BUY Jun 13, 2026 7:45pm ET $64,428.70 0 $543.43
🔴 SELL Jun 14, 2026 7:55pm ET $65,725.40 0 $554.37 $554.37 +$8.19
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
58 🟢 BUY Jun 14, 2026 8:40pm ET $65,487.70 0 $554.37
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:20am ET $66,810.80 0 $565.57 $565.57 +$8.40
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
12.7h held
59 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $66,761.30 0 $565.57
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 7:00am ET $64,728.30 0 $548.35 $548.35 $-20.01
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
60 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 7:05am ET $64,573.10 0 $548.35
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 12:25pm ET $65,945.50 0 $560.00 $560.00 +$8.88
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held
61 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 1:40pm ET $65,874.80 0 $560.00
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 12:20am ET $63,811.40 0 $542.46 $542.46 $-20.30
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $542.46
Net Profit/Loss: $-9,457.54
Total Return: -94.58%
Back to Rebel Contraire