BTCUSD Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 47 trades in period
+0.00%
Last 3 Months Return
$638.79
Current Value
66%
Win Rate
$-309.17
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.4/10
Raw Quality
10.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 10.2
30-Day Momentum
19
+0.2%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
15
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.7
Conf: 1.00×
Steady (+9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,596
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$-309.17
Current Value
$638.79
Period P&L
$-12.85
Max Drawdown
-95.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
47
Winners / Losers
31 /
16
Best Trade
+3.31%
Worst Trade
-4.39%
Avg Trade Return
+0.47%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$54,029.39
Estimated Fees
$135.07
Gross P&L
$-12.85
Net P&L (after fees)
$-147.92
Gross Return
+0.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.00%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 47 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $-309.17 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 10:55am ET | $60,895.10 | 0 | $519.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $58,218.90 | 0 | $497.05 | $497.05 |
$-25.39 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 11:05am ET | $59,190.40 | 0 | $497.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:10am ET | $60,428.00 | 0 | $507.44 | $507.44 |
+$7.88 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 4:05am ET | $60,174.60 | 0 | $507.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 8:55am ET | $58,306.40 | 0 | $491.69 | $491.69 |
$-18.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 10:35am ET | $58,582.60 | 0 | $491.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 10:10am ET | $59,900.00 | 0 | $502.75 | $502.75 |
+$8.57 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 10:30am ET | $59,592.70 | 0 | $502.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 6:20pm ET | $60,906.80 | 0 | $513.83 | $513.83 |
+$8.54 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 6:50pm ET | $60,375.60 | 0 | $513.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:10am ET | $61,614.30 | 0 | $524.38 | $524.38 |
+$7.95 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 10:55am ET | $60,895.10 | 0 | $519.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 3, 2026 7:30am ET | $61,900.00 | 0 | $528.48 | $532.96 |
+$5.96 (+1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
8.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 3, 2026 7:35am ET | $61,875.00 | 0 | $532.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 4, 2026 1:45pm ET | $63,124.40 | 0 | $543.72 | $543.72 |
+$8.07 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 4, 2026 2:10pm ET | $63,144.00 | 0 | $543.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 5:55pm ET | $64,471.40 | 0 | $555.15 | $555.15 |
+$8.68 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 6:10pm ET | $64,287.80 | 0 | $555.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 4:20am ET | $62,358.80 | 0 | $538.49 | $538.49 |
$-19.39 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 4:25am ET | $62,150.00 | 0 | $538.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:50pm ET | $63,782.50 | 0 | $552.63 | $552.63 |
+$11.42 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 10:30pm ET | $63,735.30 | 0 | $552.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 2:15pm ET | $61,775.80 | 0 | $535.64 | $535.64 |
$-19.71 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 4:15pm ET | $62,049.60 | 0 | $535.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 8:30am ET | $63,417.60 | 0 | $547.45 | $547.45 |
+$9.10 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 12:45pm ET | $64,705.00 | 0 | $547.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 2:10am ET | $62,754.80 | 0 | $530.95 | $530.95 |
$-19.20 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 2:15am ET | $62,736.60 | 0 | $530.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 1:30pm ET | $64,018.20 | 0 | $541.80 | $541.80 |
+$8.16 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:05pm ET | $64,056.50 | 0 | $541.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 11:50am ET | $65,489.10 | 0 | $553.91 | $553.91 |
+$9.38 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 1:40pm ET | $65,297.30 | 0 | $553.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $66,692.40 | 0 | $565.75 | $565.75 |
+$9.04 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.2h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 11:30am ET | $66,546.00 | 0 | $565.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:05am ET | $64,350.00 | 0 | $547.08 | $547.08 |
$-21.45 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:10am ET | $64,322.80 | 0 | $547.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:10am ET | $64,247.90 | 0 | $546.44 | $546.44 |
$-3.37 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 10:30pm ET | $63,735.30 | 0 | $552.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $64,650.10 | 0 | $560.56 | $554.37 |
+$5.15 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.5d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $64,674.90 | 0 | $554.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $62,527.30 | 0 | $535.96 | $535.96 |
$-21.13 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:45am ET | $62,583.80 | 0 | $535.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 10:55am ET | $63,870.00 | 0 | $546.98 | $546.97 |
+$8.31 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 11:55am ET | $63,628.50 | 0 | $546.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 4:20pm ET | $64,944.00 | 0 | $558.28 | $558.28 |
+$8.55 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 5:05pm ET | $64,713.10 | 0 | $558.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 5:05pm ET | $64,056.10 | 0 | $552.61 | $552.61 |
$-8.45 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 5:45pm ET | $63,972.00 | 0 | $552.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 15, 2026 5:45pm ET | $63,090.00 | 0 | $544.99 | $544.99 |
$-10.36 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 16, 2026 1:45am ET | $63,000.10 | 0 | $544.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 1:45pm ET | $64,273.50 | 0 | $556.01 | $556.01 |
+$8.26 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 3:00pm ET | $64,335.30 | 0 | $556.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:55am ET | $65,765.60 | 0 | $568.37 | $568.37 |
+$9.55 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 12:40pm ET | $68,567.90 | 0 | $568.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 4:10am ET | $70,837.50 | 0 | $587.18 | $587.18 |
+$15.92 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15.5h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 6:30am ET | $71,857.00 | 0 | $587.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 7:30pm ET | $73,294.20 | 0 | $598.92 | $598.92 |
+$8.78 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 7:45pm ET | $73,045.20 | 0 | $598.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:25pm ET | $74,534.40 | 0 | $611.13 | $611.13 |
+$9.19 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:00pm ET | $74,997.80 | 0 | $611.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 3:40am ET | $76,499.70 | 0 | $623.37 | $623.37 |
+$9.15 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.7h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 6:00am ET | $77,826.90 | 0 | $623.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $79,621.00 | 0 | $637.74 | $637.74 |
+$11.22 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 6:00am ET | $77,826.90 | 0 | $623.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 6:00am ET | $78,434.70 | 0 | $628.24 | $642.61 |
+$1.74 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 7:00am ET | $78,697.90 | 0 | $642.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 5:30am ET | $80,337.00 | 0 | $655.99 | $655.99 |
+$10.14 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 5:55am ET | $80,054.20 | 0 | $655.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET | $77,097.70 | 0 | $631.76 | $631.76 |
$-27.45 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 2:15pm ET | $77,728.40 | 0 | $631.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 30, 2026 1:00pm ET | $79,288.40 | 0 | $644.44 | $644.44 |
+$9.49 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 30, 2026 1:10pm ET | $79,132.60 | 0 | $644.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $76,653.00 | 0 | $624.25 | $624.25 |
$-23.37 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 2:40pm ET | $76,552.20 | 0 | $624.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 8:30am ET | $78,266.00 | 0 | $638.22 | $638.22 |
+$10.82 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 1:00pm ET | $80,919.00 | 0 | $638.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 2:05am ET | $78,452.80 | 0 | $618.77 | $618.77 |
$-22.59 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.5d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 2:25am ET | $78,390.80 | 0 | $618.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 13, 2026 2:25am ET | $77,270.50 | 0 | $609.93 | $609.93 |
$-11.91 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 13, 2026 2:55am ET | $77,108.70 | 0 | $609.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 12:20pm ET | $78,730.50 | 0 | $622.76 | $622.76 |
+$9.75 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 1:00pm ET | $78,751.00 | 0 | $622.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $76,300.10 | 0 | $603.38 | $603.38 |
$-22.45 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 10:35am ET | $76,036.10 | 0 | $603.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 1:30am ET | $77,587.90 | 0 | $615.69 | $615.69 |
+$9.27 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 1:45am ET | $77,489.60 | 0 | $615.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $79,347.70 | 0 | $630.45 | $630.45 |
+$11.65 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 11:35am ET | $80,730.60 | 0 | $630.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 4:35am ET | $82,669.40 | 0 | $645.59 | $645.59 |
+$11.95 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 6:00am ET | $84,574.10 | 0 | $645.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 3:20pm ET | $86,351.10 | 0 | $659.15 | $659.15 |
+$10.30 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.3h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 4:40pm ET | $86,907.40 | 0 | $659.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:25am ET | $84,223.60 | 0 | $638.79 | $638.79 |
$-23.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$638.79
Net Profit/Loss:
$-9,361.21
Total Return:
-93.61%