COIN Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 36 trades in period
+10.35%
Last 3 Months Return
$3,773.07
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$3,419.07
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality
9.5/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 9.3
30-Day Momentum
13
-1.4%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 13.8
Conf: 0.93×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$3,419.07
Current Value
$3,773.07
Period P&L
$354.01
Max Drawdown
-67.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
22 /
14
Best Trade
+5.35%
Worst Trade
-4.02%
Avg Trade Return
+0.32%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$261,764.92
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$354.01
Net P&L (after fees)
$354.01
Gross Return
+10.35%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.35%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $3,419.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:45am ET | $146.43 | 23 | $3,367.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 10:30am ET | $149.57 | 23 | $3,440.11 | $3,491.29 |
+$72.22 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 10:40am ET | $145.32 | 24 | $3,487.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 11:35am ET | $148.50 | 24 | $3,564.00 | $3,567.73 |
+$76.44 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 11:50am ET | $148.15 | 24 | $3,555.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 3:25pm ET | $151.49 | 24 | $3,635.88 | $3,647.89 |
+$80.16 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.6h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 3:50pm ET | $145.85 | 25 | $3,646.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $149.31 | 25 | $3,732.75 | $3,734.39 |
+$86.50 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $170.11 | 21 | $3,572.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 12:15pm ET | $164.60 | 21 | $3,456.60 | $3,618.68 |
$-115.71 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:30pm ET | $170.88 | 21 | $3,588.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $165.19 | 21 | $3,468.99 | $3,499.19 |
$-119.49 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $157.96 | 22 | $3,475.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.41 | 22 | $3,661.13 | $3,685.20 |
+$186.01 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 12:15pm ET | $156.76 | 23 | $3,605.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:55am ET | $160.44 | 23 | $3,690.12 | $3,769.84 |
+$84.64 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 11:40am ET | $162.78 | 23 | $3,743.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 1:15pm ET | $166.39 | 23 | $3,826.97 | $3,852.87 |
+$83.03 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $161.73 | 23 | $3,719.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.23 | 23 | $3,570.18 | $3,703.26 |
$-149.61 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:45am ET | $156.93 | 23 | $3,609.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 11:25am ET | $160.27 | 23 | $3,686.32 | $3,780.31 |
+$77.05 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 12:15pm ET | $178.51 | 21 | $3,748.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $172.78 | 21 | $3,628.37 | $3,659.86 |
$-120.45 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $162.55 | 22 | $3,576.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $156.67 | 22 | $3,446.84 | $3,530.49 |
$-129.37 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $162.76 | 21 | $3,417.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 12:30pm ET | $166.11 | 21 | $3,488.31 | $3,600.83 |
+$70.35 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 12:30pm ET | $165.66 | 21 | $3,478.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $169.36 | 21 | $3,556.56 | $3,678.53 |
+$77.70 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $160.09 | 22 | $3,521.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 12:40pm ET | $163.44 | 22 | $3,595.68 | $3,752.34 |
+$73.81 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 1:50pm ET | $146.90 | 25 | $3,672.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 2:25pm ET | $150.05 | 25 | $3,751.25 | $3,831.09 |
+$78.75 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 2:25pm ET | $150.82 | 25 | $3,770.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 2:45pm ET | $146.22 | 25 | $3,655.50 | $3,715.97 |
$-115.12 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 3:40pm ET | $153.15 | 24 | $3,675.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $148.54 | 24 | $3,564.96 | $3,605.45 |
$-110.52 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:25am ET | $148.46 | 24 | $3,562.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $151.90 | 24 | $3,645.60 | $3,688.13 |
+$82.68 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 10:15am ET | $148.66 | 24 | $3,567.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 11:55am ET | $151.74 | 24 | $3,641.64 | $3,761.81 |
+$73.68 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 1:05pm ET | $148.27 | 25 | $3,706.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:00am ET | $152.48 | 25 | $3,812.00 | $3,867.06 |
+$105.25 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $169.48 | 22 | $3,728.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $173.49 | 22 | $3,816.78 | $3,955.28 |
+$88.22 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 11:15am ET | $188.49 | 20 | $3,769.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $182.06 | 20 | $3,641.20 | $3,826.68 |
$-128.60 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 11:15am ET | $188.49 | 20 | $3,769.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.01 | 20 | $3,640.20 | $3,697.08 |
$-129.60 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $181.60 | 20 | $3,632.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $186.10 | 20 | $3,722.00 | $3,787.08 |
+$90.00 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $185.54 | 20 | $3,710.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 12:05pm ET | $179.68 | 20 | $3,593.70 | $3,669.88 |
$-117.20 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.00 | 20 | $3,620.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 2:40pm ET | $175.26 | 20 | $3,505.10 | $3,554.98 |
$-114.90 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 2:50pm ET | $176.53 | 20 | $3,530.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.08 | 20 | $3,701.60 | $3,725.98 |
+$171.00 (+4.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 10:50am ET | $183.14 | 20 | $3,662.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $179.79 | 20 | $3,595.70 | $3,658.88 |
$-67.10 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $172.68 | 21 | $3,626.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:50am ET | $176.62 | 21 | $3,709.02 | $3,741.62 |
+$82.74 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 10:30am ET | $185.28 | 20 | $3,705.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 12:20pm ET | $190.64 | 20 | $3,812.84 | $3,848.86 |
+$107.24 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 1:05pm ET | $179.29 | 21 | $3,764.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 2:40pm ET | $173.36 | 21 | $3,640.56 | $3,724.43 |
$-124.43 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:40pm ET | $164.04 | 22 | $3,608.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $168.38 | 22 | $3,704.36 | $3,819.81 |
+$95.38 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 11:40am ET | $192.06 | 19 | $3,649.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 2:00pm ET | $196.00 | 19 | $3,724.00 | $3,894.67 |
+$74.86 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 2:40pm ET | $202.85 | 19 | $3,854.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $196.46 | 19 | $3,732.65 | $3,773.07 |
$-121.60 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$3,773.07
Net Profit/Loss:
$-6,226.93
Total Return:
-62.27%