Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:21:07

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.5 neutral
20d Trend
-7.1%
5d Trend
-7.2%
EMA20 Dist
-4.1%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 7.7/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 7.6

30-Day Momentum

3
-2.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,314.54
Current Value
$8,451.40
Period P&L
$136.89
Max Drawdown
-25.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
9 / 11
Best Trade
+3.41%
Worst Trade
-4.33%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
4.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$326,558.66
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$136.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$136.89
Gross Return
+1.65%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.65%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $8,314.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 9:50am ET $103.64 80 $8,291.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:45am ET $100.40 80 $8,032.00 $8,055.31 $-259.20
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 2:25pm ET $98.60 81 $7,986.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 2:25pm ET $96.34 81 $7,803.54 $7,872.25 $-183.06
(-2.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET $97.93 80 $7,834.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $96.85 80 $7,748.00 $7,785.85 $-86.40
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:40am ET $95.39 81 $7,726.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:15am ET $97.55 81 $7,901.55 $7,960.81 +$174.96
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 10:35am ET $97.83 81 $7,924.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 10:35am ET $96.25 81 $7,796.25 $7,832.43 $-128.38
(-1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 12:20pm ET $96.67 81 $7,830.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:45am ET $93.76 81 $7,594.56 $7,596.72 $-235.71
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 12:40pm ET $95.40 79 $7,536.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $97.93 79 $7,736.08 $7,795.80 +$199.08
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET $97.93 80 $7,834.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $96.31 80 $7,704.80 $7,666.20 $-129.60
(-1.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
24d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:05am ET $96.02 79 $7,585.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $98.76 79 $7,802.04 $7,882.65 +$216.45
(+2.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:40am ET $97.69 80 $7,815.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $100.78 80 $8,062.00 $8,129.45 +$246.80
(+3.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 3:25pm ET $104.15 78 $8,124.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 3:25pm ET $103.38 78 $8,063.75 $8,069.11 $-60.34
(-0.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 9:50am ET $103.99 77 $8,007.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:55am ET $106.14 77 $8,172.78 $8,234.66 +$165.55
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 10:00am ET $105.51 78 $8,229.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:35am ET $108.35 78 $8,451.22 $8,456.10 +$221.44
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 11:15am ET $107.72 78 $8,402.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:45am ET $109.89 78 $8,571.42 $8,625.36 +$169.26
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 11:15am ET $107.72 78 $8,402.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $111.39 78 $8,688.50 $8,911.70 +$286.34
(+3.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $108.87 81 $8,818.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $107.94 81 $8,743.14 $8,836.37 $-75.33
(-0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $108.87 81 $8,818.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $107.80 81 $8,731.80 $8,749.70 $-86.67
(-1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 12:30pm ET $105.51 82 $8,651.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 12:30pm ET $104.25 82 $8,548.91 $8,646.79 $-102.91
(-1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:00pm ET $105.03 82 $8,612.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:50am ET $107.28 82 $8,796.55 $8,831.29 +$184.50
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 10:55am ET $108.38 81 $8,778.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $103.69 81 $8,398.89 $8,451.40 $-379.89
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,451.40
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,548.60
Total Return: -15.49%
Back to Rebel Contraire