Compendium › Rebel Contraire › DKNG
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DKNG
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 30 trades in period

+2.09%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,701.07
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$8,522.59
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:21:29

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.5 oversold
20d Trend
-25.9%
5d Trend
-7.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
5.3%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 12.7/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 12.6

30-Day Momentum

18
+0.4%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 20.8 Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,522.59
Current Value
$8,701.07
Period P&L
$178.44
Max Drawdown
-46.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
19 / 11
Best Trade
+3.27%
Worst Trade
-9.38%
Avg Trade Return
+0.11%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$523,634.92
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$178.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$178.44
Gross Return
+2.09%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.09%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DKNG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 30 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $8,522.59 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 11:45am ET $25.04 340 $8,513.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $24.25 340 $8,245.00 $8,254.03 $-268.60
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 11:05am ET $24.26 340 $8,250.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:00pm ET $24.86 340 $8,454.10 $8,458.03 +$204.00
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 3:10pm ET $25.50 331 $8,438.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:20am ET $26.02 331 $8,614.27 $8,633.46 +$175.43
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 11:45am ET $25.04 340 $8,513.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $25.68 340 $8,731.20 $8,851.06 +$217.60
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
11.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:05am ET $26.86 329 $8,836.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $27.22 329 $8,955.38 $8,969.50 +$118.44
(+1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:55am ET $25.69 349 $8,965.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:45am ET $24.91 349 $8,693.59 $8,697.28 $-272.22
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 10:45am ET $24.08 361 $8,692.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 12:10pm ET $24.74 361 $8,931.14 $8,935.54 +$238.26
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.4h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 1:05pm ET $24.81 360 $8,931.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 10:25am ET $24.02 360 $8,647.20 $8,651.14 $-284.40
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 11:05am ET $22.98 376 $8,640.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $23.73 376 $8,922.86 $8,933.52 +$282.38
(+3.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $24.08 370 $8,909.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 10:40am ET $24.64 370 $9,114.95 $9,138.72 +$205.20
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:05am ET $26.86 329 $8,836.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $24.34 329 $8,007.86 $8,309.64 $-829.08
(-9.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:00am ET $23.66 351 $8,302.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $22.72 351 $7,974.72 $7,981.45 $-328.19
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:45am ET $21.44 372 $7,977.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 3:00pm ET $21.94 372 $8,161.49 $8,165.40 +$183.95
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 10:20am ET $24.35 335 $8,157.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 11:10am ET $24.84 335 $8,321.40 $8,329.55 +$164.15
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
50m held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:45am ET $25.13 331 $8,318.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 11:25am ET $25.64 331 $8,485.19 $8,496.71 +$167.16
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 11:25am ET $25.29 335 $8,472.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET $26.04 335 $8,723.40 $8,747.96 +$251.25
(+3.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 10:35am ET $25.73 339 $8,722.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:40am ET $24.93 339 $8,451.27 $8,476.76 $-271.20
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 1:05pm ET $25.11 337 $8,463.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:50am ET $25.84 337 $8,709.76 $8,722.77 +$246.01
(+2.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:30am ET $25.24 345 $8,707.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 10:50am ET $25.85 345 $8,918.25 $8,933.19 +$210.42
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20m held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 11:40am ET $26.09 342 $8,922.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:50am ET $25.29 342 $8,649.18 $8,659.59 $-273.60
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 10:35am ET $24.71 350 $8,648.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 1:20pm ET $25.35 350 $8,872.50 $8,883.59 +$224.00
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:35am ET $23.54 377 $8,874.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 10:25am ET $24.05 377 $9,066.85 $9,075.86 +$192.27
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
50m held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 10:35am ET $24.31 373 $9,067.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 1:50pm ET $24.80 373 $9,250.40 $9,258.63 +$182.77
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 2:00pm ET $24.49 378 $9,257.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $23.73 378 $8,968.05 $8,968.78 $-289.85
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 11:25am ET $23.55 380 $8,949.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:50am ET $24.16 380 $9,178.90 $9,198.68 +$229.90
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 11:20am ET $24.16 380 $9,180.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:40pm ET $24.65 380 $9,365.10 $9,382.98 +$184.30
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 3:50pm ET $24.78 378 $9,368.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:40am ET $23.98 378 $9,064.44 $9,078.69 $-304.29
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 10:00am ET $23.69 383 $9,075.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 1:35pm ET $22.92 383 $8,776.45 $8,779.95 $-298.74
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 2:35pm ET $21.98 399 $8,770.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET $22.46 399 $8,961.54 $8,971.47 +$191.52
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
30 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:35am ET $21.54 416 $8,960.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $20.89 416 $8,690.24 $8,701.07 $-270.40
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,701.07
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,298.93
Total Return: -12.99%
Back to Rebel Contraire