ETHUSD Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 44 trades in period
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026
Quality Components
30-Day Momentum
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
💸 Capital Refund History
When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.
| # | Date | Capital Before | Trades Before | Era Fees Paid | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nov 13, 2025 | $96.75 | 1,010 | $13,720.20 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 1 time. Total capital invested: $20,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.
📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures
Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.
📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 44 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $2,984.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $1,875.24 | 2 | $3,091.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:00pm ET | $1,810.06 | 2 | $2,984.31 | $2,969.12 |
$-122.65 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:15pm ET | $1,907.86 | 2 | $2,969.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:50am ET | $1,972.30 | 2 | $3,069.41 | $3,054.31 |
+$85.19 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.6h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:15am ET | $1,937.01 | 2 | $3,054.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:25am ET | $1,872.61 | 2 | $2,952.77 | $2,937.75 |
$-116.56 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 4:00am ET | $1,872.01 | 2 | $2,937.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 4:30am ET | $1,916.90 | 2 | $3,008.19 | $2,993.33 |
+$55.58 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 6:45am ET | $1,923.41 | 2 | $2,993.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,971.26 | 2 | $3,067.80 | $3,052.64 |
+$59.31 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,978.08 | 2 | $3,052.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $2,032.17 | 2 | $3,136.12 | $3,120.65 |
+$68.00 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:10pm ET | $2,050.92 | 2 | $3,120.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:10pm ET | $2,103.20 | 2 | $3,200.19 | $3,184.39 |
+$63.75 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 1:50am ET | $2,061.98 | 2 | $3,184.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 5:35am ET | $1,999.49 | 2 | $3,087.89 | $3,072.21 |
$-112.19 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $2,024.46 | 2 | $3,072.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $2,067.38 | 2 | $3,137.34 | $3,121.81 |
+$49.61 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 11:45am ET | $2,099.14 | 1 | $3,121.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 4:50am ET | $2,035.01 | 1 | $3,026.45 | $3,011.08 |
$-110.74 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 5:20am ET | $2,026.98 | 1 | $3,011.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $2,080.15 | 1 | $3,090.06 | $3,074.81 |
+$63.74 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:15pm ET | $2,123.65 | 1 | $3,074.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:40pm ET | $2,059.70 | 1 | $2,982.22 | $2,967.08 |
$-107.74 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.4h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:25am ET | $2,061.99 | 1 | $2,967.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:50am ET | $1,998.40 | 1 | $2,875.56 | $2,860.96 |
$-106.12 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 2:15am ET | $2,008.26 | 1 | $2,860.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $2,038.80 | 1 | $2,904.47 | $2,890.05 |
+$29.10 (+1.5%) |
📅 Sim Ended
10.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:10pm ET | $2,027.60 | 1 | $2,890.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:50pm ET | $1,965.59 | 1 | $2,801.67 | $2,801.67 |
$-102.61 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.7h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 1:15am ET | $1,944.15 | 1 | $2,801.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:10am ET | $2,001.86 | 1 | $2,884.83 | $2,884.83 |
+$68.95 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $1,913.74 | 2 | $2,884.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 2:10pm ET | $1,952.55 | 2 | $2,943.34 | $2,943.34 |
+$43.94 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 12:55pm ET | $1,978.11 | 1 | $2,943.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:50am ET | $2,018.83 | 1 | $3,003.92 | $3,003.92 |
+$45.71 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 3:35am ET | $2,024.64 | 1 | $3,003.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:50am ET | $1,957.92 | 1 | $2,904.93 | $2,904.93 |
$-113.76 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 10:50am ET | $1,992.97 | 1 | $2,904.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:40pm ET | $1,932.69 | 1 | $2,817.07 | $2,817.07 |
$-102.17 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $1,948.24 | 1 | $2,817.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 21, 2026 9:25am ET | $1,992.12 | 1 | $2,880.52 | $2,880.52 |
+$49.20 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,988.85 | 1 | $2,880.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 8:00pm ET | $1,924.16 | 1 | $2,786.83 | $2,786.83 |
$-107.86 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:05pm ET | $1,902.37 | 1 | $2,786.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 8:15pm ET | $1,834.14 | 1 | $2,686.88 | $2,686.88 |
$-113.64 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:05pm ET | $1,836.11 | 1 | $2,686.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 8:10pm ET | $1,885.91 | 1 | $2,759.76 | $2,759.76 |
+$59.26 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:40pm ET | $1,923.85 | 1 | $2,759.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 8:25am ET | $1,964.98 | 1 | $2,818.76 | $2,818.76 |
+$45.05 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:55am ET | $2,017.87 | 1 | $2,818.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 12:10pm ET | $2,064.43 | 1 | $2,883.80 | $2,883.80 |
+$50.78 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 1:40pm ET | $2,071.45 | 1 | $2,883.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 4:40pm ET | $2,116.63 | 1 | $2,946.70 | $2,946.70 |
+$48.32 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 5:20pm ET | $2,106.25 | 1 | $2,946.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 6:40pm ET | $2,043.01 | 1 | $2,858.23 | $2,858.23 |
$-102.99 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 5:20pm ET | $2,106.25 | 1 | $2,946.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $2,041.71 | 1 | $2,856.41 | $2,767.94 |
$-104.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.5h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:10am ET | $2,022.90 | 1 | $2,767.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 6:45am ET | $1,957.69 | 1 | $2,678.71 | $2,678.71 |
$-102.84 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 7:45am ET | $1,950.57 | 1 | $2,678.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:30am ET | $1,879.52 | 1 | $2,581.14 | $2,581.14 |
$-110.72 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:35am ET | $1,868.15 | 1 | $2,581.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 9:00am ET | $1,915.24 | 1 | $2,646.20 | $2,646.20 |
+$51.99 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.4h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 11:35am ET | $1,899.10 | 1 | $2,646.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:55pm ET | $1,945.01 | 1 | $2,710.17 | $2,710.17 |
+$50.58 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $1,928.36 | 1 | $2,710.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 3:50pm ET | $1,967.21 | 1 | $2,764.77 | $2,764.77 |
+$40.91 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 4:05pm ET | $1,952.66 | 1 | $2,764.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 8:50pm ET | $2,004.34 | 1 | $2,837.94 | $2,837.94 |
+$59.17 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 10:20pm ET | $2,032.45 | 1 | $2,837.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 8:20am ET | $1,970.15 | 1 | $2,750.95 | $2,750.95 |
$-100.96 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $2,005.73 | 1 | $2,750.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 3:10pm ET | $1,938.41 | 1 | $2,658.62 | $2,658.62 |
$-105.86 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 3:25pm ET | $1,931.31 | 1 | $2,658.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 8:10pm ET | $1,985.39 | 1 | $2,733.07 | $2,733.07 |
+$60.97 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 8:25pm ET | $1,968.79 | 1 | $2,733.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $2,011.47 | 1 | $2,792.32 | $2,792.32 |
+$45.43 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 12:10pm ET | $2,053.40 | 1 | $2,792.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 12:50am ET | $1,989.17 | 1 | $2,704.98 | $2,704.98 |
$-101.09 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.7h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 3:40am ET | $1,968.14 | 1 | $2,704.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:25am ET | $2,009.41 | 1 | $2,761.70 | $2,761.70 |
+$43.05 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:35am ET | $1,985.84 | 1 | $2,761.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:45am ET | $2,034.37 | 1 | $2,829.19 | $2,829.19 |
+$53.51 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.2h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 5:45am ET | $2,073.92 | 1 | $2,829.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $2,129.22 | 1 | $2,904.63 | $2,904.63 |
+$61.10 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 12:00pm ET | $2,142.55 | 1 | $2,904.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $2,199.92 | 1 | $2,982.41 | $2,982.41 |
+$63.06 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
+ 1 refund ($10,000)