Compendium › Rebel Contraire › IBM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IBM
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 30 trades in period

-54.13%
Last 3 Months Return
$6,702.68
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$14,611.80
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:59:13

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 12.5/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 12.3

30-Day Momentum

9
-5.7%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.87×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,611.80
Current Value
$6,702.68
Period P&L
$-7,909.05
Max Drawdown
-11.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.28

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
15 / 15
Best Trade
+2.54%
Worst Trade
-25.97%
Avg Trade Return
-1.90%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$580,032.40
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-7,909.05
Net P&L (after fees)
$-7,909.05
Gross Return
-54.13%
Net Return (after fees)
-54.13%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 30 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $14,611.80 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 9:40am ET $257.99 56 $14,447.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 10:35am ET $263.20 56 $14,739.48 $14,903.79 +$292.04
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
55m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 12:20pm ET $259.99 57 $14,819.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET $265.20 57 $15,116.40 $15,200.48 +$296.69
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 11:55am ET $273.95 55 $15,067.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 12:50pm ET $279.68 55 $15,382.26 $15,515.48 +$315.01
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 1:55pm ET $288.65 53 $15,298.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:55am ET $294.77 53 $15,622.81 $15,839.65 +$324.17
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET $301.65 52 $15,685.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:30am ET $307.94 52 $16,012.88 $16,166.73 +$327.08
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 12:55pm ET $302.45 53 $16,030.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $285.37 53 $15,124.48 $15,261.09 $-905.64
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:05am ET $294.29 51 $15,008.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $217.85 51 $11,110.35 $11,362.91 $-3,898.18
(-26.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 9:45am ET $220.40 51 $11,240.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:20pm ET $213.32 51 $10,879.57 $11,002.08 $-360.82
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $217.59 50 $10,879.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 11:20am ET $210.52 50 $10,526.00 $10,648.52 $-353.56
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 1:35pm ET $215.05 49 $10,537.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 12:20pm ET $208.54 49 $10,218.46 $10,329.53 $-318.99
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 1:10pm ET $204.66 50 $10,233.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET $209.87 50 $10,493.25 $10,589.78 +$260.25
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:00am ET $218.50 48 $10,488.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 10:50am ET $222.95 48 $10,701.60 $10,803.38 +$213.60
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:05am ET $294.29 51 $15,008.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $224.09 51 $11,428.59 $7,223.43 $-3,579.95
(-23.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20d held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:05am ET $218.17 33 $7,199.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 3:40pm ET $222.91 33 $7,356.03 $7,379.85 +$156.42
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.6h held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 3:50pm ET $227.19 32 $7,270.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 1:05pm ET $231.75 32 $7,416.00 $7,525.77 +$145.92
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 2:00pm ET $237.65 31 $7,367.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET $229.90 31 $7,126.90 $7,285.67 $-240.10
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 10:55am ET $234.79 31 $7,278.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 10:00am ET $239.73 31 $7,431.63 $7,438.65 +$152.98
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:15am ET $239.69 31 $7,430.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 10:00am ET $231.95 31 $7,190.45 $7,198.71 $-239.94
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 10:35am ET $237.57 30 $7,127.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 10:55am ET $229.73 30 $6,891.75 $6,963.21 $-235.50
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 1:50pm ET $233.50 29 $6,771.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 11:00am ET $238.43 29 $6,914.33 $7,106.04 +$142.83
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 12:05pm ET $236.86 30 $7,105.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 12:05pm ET $232.71 30 $6,981.30 $6,981.54 $-124.50
(-1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 12:30pm ET $230.01 30 $6,900.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:55am ET $234.66 30 $7,039.80 $7,121.04 +$139.50
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.4h held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET $236.74 30 $7,102.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:35am ET $229.33 30 $6,879.90 $6,898.74 $-222.30
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:55am ET $236.74 30 $7,102.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $234.68 30 $7,040.40 $6,836.94 $-61.80
(-0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6.1d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 12:25pm ET $235.50 29 $6,829.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 12:25pm ET $233.82 29 $6,780.64 $6,788.08 $-48.86
(-0.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:30pm ET $236.34 28 $6,617.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:10am ET $241.73 28 $6,768.37 $6,938.93 +$150.85
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 10:40am ET $244.93 28 $6,857.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 12:10pm ET $250.51 28 $7,014.42 $7,095.45 +$156.52
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 1:20pm ET $251.19 28 $7,033.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $240.02 28 $6,720.56 $6,782.69 $-312.76
(-4.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 10:00am ET $240.86 28 $6,744.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:40am ET $233.32 28 $6,532.96 $6,571.57 $-211.12
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
30 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 9:45am ET $231.75 28 $6,489.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:10am ET $236.43 28 $6,620.11 $6,702.68 +$131.11
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,702.68
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,297.32
Total Return: -32.97%
Back to Rebel Contraire