Compendium › Rebel Contraire › ISRG
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ISRG
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 26 trades in period

-1.75%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,852.39
Current Value
65%
Win Rate
$9,010.43
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:58:57

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 12.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.9

30-Day Momentum

63
+9.1%
30d Return
80%
Win Rate
10
Trades
2.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 72.6 Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+51 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,010.43
Current Value
$8,852.39
Period P&L
$-158.07
Max Drawdown
-39.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
17 / 9
Best Trade
+5.79%
Worst Trade
-14.43%
Avg Trade Return
+0.02%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$436,088.49
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-158.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$-158.07
Gross Return
-1.75%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.75%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,010.43 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 3:15pm ET $403.42 22 $8,875.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 10:15am ET $411.58 22 $9,054.76 $9,189.99 +$179.52
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 11:50am ET $405.10 22 $8,912.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:45am ET $413.61 22 $9,099.53 $9,377.32 +$187.33
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 12:00pm ET $401.01 23 $9,223.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:35am ET $410.98 23 $9,452.54 $9,606.74 +$229.43
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 2:45pm ET $437.82 21 $9,194.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET $421.90 21 $8,859.90 $9,272.42 $-334.32
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET $410.36 22 $9,027.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $388.79 22 $8,553.38 $8,797.95 $-474.47
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 12:20pm ET $391.38 22 $8,610.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET $400.00 22 $8,800.00 $8,987.59 +$189.64
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 10:00am ET $357.81 25 $8,945.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 3:35pm ET $346.83 25 $8,670.75 $8,713.09 $-274.50
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.6h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 10:35am ET $358.05 24 $8,593.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:45am ET $346.43 24 $8,314.44 $8,434.33 $-278.76
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:45am ET $331.24 25 $8,281.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 10:15am ET $338.35 25 $8,458.75 $8,612.08 +$177.75
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:50am ET $354.77 24 $8,514.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $373.98 24 $8,975.40 $9,073.00 +$460.92
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET $410.36 22 $9,027.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $351.13 22 $7,724.75 $7,769.90 $-1,303.10
(-14.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET $350.76 22 $7,716.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $371.06 22 $8,163.32 $8,216.50 +$446.60
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:50am ET $368.34 22 $8,103.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $375.89 22 $8,269.69 $8,382.71 +$166.21
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 10:20am ET $373.78 22 $8,223.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:40am ET $382.94 22 $8,424.68 $8,584.23 +$201.52
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 10:55am ET $399.45 21 $8,388.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $391.30 21 $8,217.40 $8,413.18 $-171.05
(-2.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 11:25am ET $397.95 21 $8,356.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 1:00pm ET $383.58 21 $8,055.18 $8,111.41 $-301.77
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:10pm ET $379.48 21 $7,968.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 10:30am ET $367.96 21 $7,727.16 $7,869.59 $-241.82
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:30am ET $367.98 21 $7,727.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 10:30am ET $372.29 21 $7,818.09 $7,960.10 +$90.51
(+1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 10:40am ET $370.41 21 $7,778.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET $380.45 21 $7,989.45 $8,170.94 +$210.84
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:30am ET $367.98 21 $7,727.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:35am ET $368.31 21 $7,734.51 $8,177.87 +$6.93
(+0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
8d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 2:20pm ET $365.71 22 $8,045.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 10:40am ET $354.34 22 $7,795.48 $7,927.62 $-250.25
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 1:45pm ET $350.88 22 $7,719.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:50am ET $358.72 22 $7,891.84 $8,100.10 +$172.48
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET $364.95 22 $8,028.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $373.80 22 $8,223.60 $8,294.80 +$194.70
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $372.03 22 $8,184.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:45am ET $381.71 22 $8,397.62 $8,507.76 +$212.96
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 10:25am ET $378.59 22 $8,328.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 1:25pm ET $386.34 22 $8,499.48 $8,678.26 +$170.50
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3h held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 1:35pm ET $391.79 22 $8,619.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 12:50pm ET $399.70 22 $8,793.51 $8,852.39 +$174.13
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,852.39
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,147.61
Total Return: -11.48%
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