Compendium › Rebel Contraire › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 22 trades in period

-1.77%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,864.94
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$12,079.17
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:03:35

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.7/35
Total Return
10.2/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 23.5/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 23.4

30-Day Momentum

5
-3.8%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 6.8 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,079.17
Current Value
$11,864.94
Period P&L
$-214.24
Max Drawdown
-33.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
12 / 10
Best Trade
+3.06%
Worst Trade
-4.13%
Avg Trade Return
+0.06%
Avg Hold Time
3.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$497,593.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-214.24
Net P&L (after fees)
$-214.24
Gross Return
-1.77%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.77%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,079.17 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 10:00am ET $1,102.11 10 $11,021.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET $1,128.85 10 $11,288.50 $12,079.18 +$267.40
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 11:10am ET $1,140.39 10 $11,403.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:40am ET $1,175.28 10 $11,752.80 $12,428.08 +$348.90
(+3.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET $1,218.31 10 $12,183.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 1:05pm ET $1,181.02 10 $11,810.15 $12,055.13 $-372.95
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET $1,199.62 10 $11,996.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $1,235.27 10 $12,352.70 $12,411.63 +$356.50
(+3.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET $1,216.80 10 $12,168.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $1,174.39 10 $11,743.90 $11,987.53 $-424.10
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $1,152.25 10 $11,522.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 10:15am ET $1,176.46 10 $11,764.60 $12,229.63 +$242.10
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 11:40am ET $1,181.33 10 $11,813.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 11:40am ET $1,167.84 10 $11,678.40 $12,094.68 $-134.95
(-1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 12:35pm ET $1,181.35 10 $11,813.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $1,207.88 10 $12,078.80 $12,359.98 +$265.30
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET $1,216.80 10 $12,168.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $1,180.99 10 $11,809.95 $12,001.93 $-358.05
(-2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
22d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $1,145.00 10 $11,450.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $1,177.99 10 $11,779.90 $12,331.83 +$329.90
(+2.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 10:20am ET $1,181.29 10 $11,812.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET $1,208.96 10 $12,089.63 $12,608.57 +$276.74
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 10:00am ET $1,225.03 10 $12,250.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET $1,182.53 10 $11,825.25 $12,183.48 $-425.09
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:35am ET $1,180.26 10 $11,802.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:35am ET $1,206.51 10 $12,065.10 $12,446.02 +$262.54
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 10:40am ET $1,277.10 9 $11,493.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET $1,234.50 9 $11,110.50 $12,062.62 $-383.40
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 10:10am ET $1,242.57 9 $11,183.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:40am ET $1,191.30 9 $10,721.70 $11,601.19 $-461.43
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:40am ET $1,179.76 9 $10,617.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $1,176.61 9 $10,589.49 $11,572.84 $-28.35
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET $1,179.84 9 $10,618.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:40am ET $1,143.06 9 $10,287.54 $11,241.82 $-331.02
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 10:20am ET $1,142.67 9 $10,284.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:20am ET $1,131.25 9 $10,181.25 $11,139.04 $-102.78
(-1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 10:35am ET $1,125.25 9 $10,127.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 11:50am ET $1,148.95 9 $10,340.55 $11,352.34 +$213.30
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 12:50pm ET $1,142.20 9 $10,279.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $1,144.00 9 $10,296.00 $11,368.50 +$16.16
(+0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET $1,141.69 9 $10,275.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 10:35am ET $1,168.26 9 $10,514.34 $11,607.63 +$239.13
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
55m held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 10:40am ET $1,165.00 9 $10,485.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 10:15am ET $1,193.59 9 $10,742.31 $11,864.94 +$257.31
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,864.94
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,864.94
Total Return: +18.65%
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