Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:27:32

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

44
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
15.5/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
6.4/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 44.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 44.3

30-Day Momentum

14
+2.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.3 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,991.28
Current Value
$15,405.88
Period P&L
$2,414.56
Max Drawdown
-12.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.57

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
10 / 7
Best Trade
+4.67%
Worst Trade
-2.38%
Avg Trade Return
+1.05%
Avg Hold Time
5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$486,114.19
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,414.56
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,414.56
Gross Return
+18.59%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.59%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,991.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 11:00am ET $499.04 26 $12,975.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:55am ET $509.06 26 $13,235.56 $13,251.83 +$260.52
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 10:10am ET $508.17 26 $13,212.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:05am ET $520.00 26 $13,520.00 $13,559.28 +$307.45
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 11:35am ET $534.72 25 $13,368.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:35am ET $536.37 25 $13,409.25 $13,600.53 +$41.25
(+0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 12:05pm ET $520.02 26 $13,520.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $533.69 26 $13,875.94 $13,955.88 +$355.35
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 10:20am ET $541.97 25 $13,549.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $540.70 25 $13,517.50 $13,924.14 $-31.75
(-0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 9:40am ET $539.79 25 $13,494.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $545.06 25 $13,626.50 $14,055.89 +$131.75
(+1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 10:30am ET $560.43 25 $14,010.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $575.92 25 $14,398.00 $14,443.01 +$387.12
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $568.53 25 $14,213.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $580.21 25 $14,505.25 $14,735.01 +$292.00
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $566.67 26 $14,733.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET $561.59 26 $14,601.34 $14,602.93 $-132.08
(-0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 10:55am ET $566.27 25 $14,156.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $565.61 25 $14,140.37 $14,586.49 $-16.44
(-0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 10:20am ET $571.66 25 $14,291.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $592.43 25 $14,810.75 $15,105.74 +$519.25
(+3.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 10:20am ET $571.66 25 $14,291.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $598.34 25 $14,958.38 $15,772.62 +$666.88
(+4.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $593.06 26 $15,419.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $590.75 26 $15,359.50 $15,712.56 $-60.06
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $593.06 26 $15,419.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $585.55 26 $15,224.30 $15,517.30 $-195.26
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 12:30pm ET $582.14 26 $15,135.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 12:30pm ET $568.30 26 $14,775.80 $15,157.46 $-359.84
(-2.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $565.61 26 $14,705.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET $576.93 26 $15,000.18 $15,451.78 +$294.32
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:15am ET $568.58 27 $15,351.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $566.88 27 $15,305.76 $15,405.88 $-45.90
(-0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,405.88
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,405.88
Total Return: +54.06%
Back to Rebel Contraire