Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:35:14

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

35
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
10.3/35
Total Return
13.0/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
1.8/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 37.5/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 35.4

30-Day Momentum

33
+4.7%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
3
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 53.5 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,062.64
Current Value
$13,600.53
Period P&L
$-462.14
Max Drawdown
-12.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
9 / 7
Best Trade
+2.33%
Worst Trade
-4.78%
Avg Trade Return
-0.22%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$421,986.31
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-462.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$-462.14
Gross Return
-3.29%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.29%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $14,062.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 3:25pm ET $504.89 27 $13,632.03
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:50am ET $515.91 27 $13,929.57 $14,431.22 +$297.54
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 1:05pm ET $529.40 27 $14,293.80
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET $504.07 27 $13,609.89 $13,747.31 $-683.91
(-4.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held
3 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:45am ET $502.21 27 $13,559.67
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:45am ET $496.60 27 $13,408.20 $13,595.84 $-151.47
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
4 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:55am ET $499.80 27 $13,494.60
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 9:55am ET $501.68 27 $13,545.49 $13,646.74 +$50.90
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
5 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 10:25am ET $494.46 27 $13,350.42
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 10:25am ET $499.00 27 $13,473.00 $13,769.32 +$122.58
(+0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 11:20am ET $506.75 27 $13,682.18
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 10:30am ET $491.52 27 $13,271.04 $13,358.18 $-411.14
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held
7 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 12:15pm ET $498.76 26 $12,967.73
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 12:15pm ET $493.67 26 $12,835.52 $13,225.97 $-132.21
(-1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
8 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 12:15pm ET $494.17 26 $12,848.29
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 12:15pm ET $492.78 26 $12,812.28 $13,189.96 $-36.01
(-0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $480.79 27 $12,981.33
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:15am ET $465.57 27 $12,570.39 $12,779.02 $-410.94
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 10:25am ET $485.50 26 $12,623.00
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:25am ET $490.22 26 $12,745.72 $12,901.74 +$122.72
(+1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:25am ET $488.78 26 $12,708.28
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 10:25am ET $491.88 26 $12,788.88 $12,982.34 +$80.60
(+0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 12:10pm ET $498.33 26 $12,956.71
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $488.58 26 $12,703.08 $12,728.71 $-253.63
(-2.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 10:00am ET $484.85 26 $12,606.10
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 11:00am ET $494.95 26 $12,868.70 $12,991.31 +$262.60
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 11:00am ET $499.04 26 $12,975.04
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:55am ET $509.06 26 $13,235.56 $13,251.83 +$260.52
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 10:10am ET $508.17 26 $13,212.55
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:05am ET $520.00 26 $13,520.00 $13,559.28 +$307.45
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 11:35am ET $534.72 25 $13,368.00
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:35am ET $536.37 25 $13,409.25 $13,600.53 +$41.25
(+0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,600.53
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,600.53
Total Return: +36.01%
Back to Rebel Contraire