MARA Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 42 trades in period
+18.03%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,059.23
Current Value
64%
Win Rate
$6,828.14
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
12.0/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 12.0
30-Day Momentum
35
+3.9%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 37.3
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+23 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$6,828.14
Current Value
$8,059.23
Period P&L
$1,231.04
Max Drawdown
-40.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.15
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
27 /
15
Best Trade
+5.25%
Worst Trade
-4.45%
Avg Trade Return
+0.44%
Avg Hold Time
16.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$656,288.04
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,231.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,231.04
Gross Return
+18.03%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.03%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,828.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 3:10pm ET | $13.70 | 498 | $6,825.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 10:05am ET | $14.12 | 498 | $7,031.76 | $7,034.87 |
+$206.67 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.9h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $13.53 | 519 | $7,021.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:30am ET | $13.84 | 519 | $7,182.96 | $7,196.49 |
+$161.62 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 11:35am ET | $13.55 | 531 | $7,194.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 3:40pm ET | $13.84 | 531 | $7,346.39 | $7,348.19 |
+$151.71 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 3:50pm ET | $13.48 | 544 | $7,335.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.90 | 544 | $7,564.32 | $7,576.67 |
+$228.48 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $13.10 | 578 | $7,574.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 12:25pm ET | $13.38 | 578 | $7,730.75 | $7,732.73 |
+$156.06 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 1:55pm ET | $12.47 | 620 | $7,731.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $12.07 | 620 | $7,483.71 | $7,485.04 |
$-247.69 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $13.82 | 541 | $7,476.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 12:45pm ET | $13.40 | 541 | $7,249.40 | $7,257.82 |
$-227.22 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 1:10pm ET | $12.66 | 573 | $7,254.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $12.24 | 573 | $7,013.46 | $7,017.10 |
$-240.72 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.92 | 588 | $7,009.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $12.16 | 588 | $7,150.02 | $7,158.10 |
+$141.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 11:45am ET | $11.85 | 603 | $7,146.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 1:20pm ET | $12.11 | 603 | $7,305.34 | $7,316.75 |
+$158.65 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $11.32 | 646 | $7,312.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 2:25pm ET | $11.57 | 646 | $7,477.45 | $7,481.48 |
+$164.73 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 2:25pm ET | $10.77 | 694 | $7,470.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.33 | 694 | $7,863.02 | $7,873.59 |
+$392.11 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $12.60 | 624 | $7,865.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 2:50pm ET | $12.18 | 624 | $7,600.32 | $7,608.39 |
$-265.20 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 3:05pm ET | $12.36 | 615 | $7,601.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $12.90 | 615 | $7,933.50 | $7,940.49 |
+$332.10 (+4.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $12.35 | 642 | $7,928.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 11:35am ET | $12.66 | 642 | $8,130.93 | $8,142.72 |
+$202.23 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 11:55am ET | $11.48 | 709 | $8,135.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 1:55pm ET | $11.70 | 709 | $8,298.84 | $8,305.79 |
+$163.07 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 3:40pm ET | $11.27 | 736 | $8,294.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $10.88 | 736 | $8,007.53 | $8,018.68 |
$-287.11 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $11.64 | 689 | $8,016.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 11:05am ET | $11.87 | 689 | $8,178.43 | $8,180.59 |
+$161.91 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 11:35am ET | $11.41 | 716 | $8,169.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.64 | 716 | $8,334.24 | $8,345.27 |
+$164.68 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $11.37 | 733 | $8,334.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 10:50am ET | $11.60 | 733 | $8,503.53 | $8,514.59 |
+$169.32 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 11:55am ET | $11.45 | 743 | $8,507.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.94 | 743 | $8,128.42 | $8,135.66 |
$-378.93 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $9.86 | 825 | $8,133.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 10:50am ET | $10.13 | 825 | $8,353.13 | $8,355.11 |
+$219.45 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $9.61 | 868 | $8,345.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.05 | 868 | $8,723.40 | $8,732.69 |
+$377.58 (+4.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $9.88 | 883 | $8,724.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 11:05am ET | $9.57 | 883 | $8,454.72 | $8,463.37 |
$-269.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 11:45am ET | $9.35 | 905 | $8,457.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.01 | 905 | $8,154.05 | $8,160.19 |
$-303.18 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 12:55pm ET | $9.57 | 852 | $8,153.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $9.24 | 852 | $7,872.48 | $7,879.03 |
$-281.16 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.78 | 897 | $7,875.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:35am ET | $9.02 | 897 | $8,086.46 | $8,089.83 |
+$210.80 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 11:15am ET | $10.72 | 755 | $8,089.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 3:25pm ET | $10.94 | 755 | $8,255.93 | $8,255.93 |
+$166.10 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 10:50am ET | $11.59 | 712 | $8,252.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 3:35pm ET | $11.23 | 712 | $7,999.32 | $8,003.17 |
$-252.76 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $11.49 | 696 | $8,000.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $11.13 | 696 | $7,743.00 | $7,745.65 |
$-257.52 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $12.01 | 645 | $7,743.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 1:20pm ET | $12.27 | 645 | $7,917.37 | $7,919.80 |
+$174.15 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 1:40pm ET | $10.69 | 740 | $7,914.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 10:30am ET | $10.37 | 740 | $7,673.80 | $7,679.30 |
$-240.50 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 11:50am ET | $10.39 | 739 | $7,678.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.05 | 739 | $7,423.26 | $7,424.34 |
$-254.96 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 2:35pm ET | $11.42 | 650 | $7,423.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $11.70 | 650 | $7,608.25 | $7,609.59 |
+$185.25 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 3:40pm ET | $11.24 | 676 | $7,601.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $11.48 | 676 | $7,757.10 | $7,765.07 |
+$155.48 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $11.88 | 653 | $7,754.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $11.37 | 653 | $7,424.61 | $7,435.30 |
$-329.77 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 10:45am ET | $12.02 | 618 | $7,425.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 11:30am ET | $12.31 | 618 | $7,604.49 | $7,614.52 |
+$179.22 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 12:35pm ET | $11.60 | 656 | $7,612.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 1:45pm ET | $11.85 | 656 | $7,776.88 | $7,778.52 |
+$164.00 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 2:15pm ET | $11.26 | 690 | $7,769.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 11:15am ET | $11.50 | 690 | $7,935.07 | $7,944.12 |
+$165.60 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 11:45am ET | $12.64 | 628 | $7,934.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 12:35pm ET | $12.93 | 628 | $8,118.34 | $8,127.68 |
+$183.56 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 1:00pm ET | $13.39 | 607 | $8,124.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:05am ET | $13.69 | 607 | $8,312.86 | $8,315.85 |
+$188.17 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.1h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $13.40 | 620 | $8,307.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 11:20am ET | $12.98 | 620 | $8,050.70 | $8,059.23 |
$-256.62 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,059.23
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,940.77
Total Return:
-19.41%