Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:25:29

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

22
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.1/35
Total Return
8.4/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 22.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 22.1

30-Day Momentum

9
-4.3%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.9 Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-13 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,877.98
Current Value
$10,933.72
Period P&L
$2,055.76
Max Drawdown
-29.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.34

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
16 / 6
Best Trade
+9.29%
Worst Trade
-4.60%
Avg Trade Return
+1.00%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$449,147.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,055.76
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,055.76
Gross Return
+23.16%
Net Return (after fees)
+23.16%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $8,877.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 12:45pm ET $123.62 71 $8,777.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $127.21 71 $9,031.56 $9,132.47 +$254.53
(+2.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:00am ET $127.23 71 $9,033.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 3:25pm ET $129.85 71 $9,219.35 $9,318.50 +$186.02
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:40am ET $126.55 73 $9,238.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET $128.13 73 $9,353.85 $9,434.20 +$115.70
(+1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 11:10am ET $129.03 73 $9,419.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 11:30am ET $124.93 73 $9,120.25 $9,135.26 $-298.94
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 12:55pm ET $123.26 74 $9,121.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:55pm ET $123.86 74 $9,165.27 $9,179.29 +$44.03
(+0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 2:10pm ET $128.35 71 $9,112.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:45am ET $131.23 71 $9,317.15 $9,383.59 +$204.30
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:25am ET $126.42 74 $9,355.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET $129.34 74 $9,571.16 $9,599.67 +$216.08
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 10:45am ET $130.48 73 $9,524.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET $133.55 73 $9,749.15 $9,824.15 +$224.47
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:00am ET $130.68 75 $9,801.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 10:00am ET $128.26 75 $9,619.50 $9,642.65 $-181.50
(-1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 10:10am ET $128.11 75 $9,608.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 10:35am ET $130.78 75 $9,808.50 $9,842.90 +$200.25
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 11:30am ET $128.49 76 $9,765.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET $131.15 76 $9,967.78 $10,045.44 +$202.54
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 12:45pm ET $133.04 75 $9,978.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 3:10pm ET $135.76 75 $10,182.00 $10,249.44 +$204.00
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 3:40pm ET $135.72 75 $10,179.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET $148.34 75 $11,125.13 $11,195.57 +$946.13
(+9.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 9:35am ET $148.67 75 $11,150.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 11:25am ET $151.80 75 $11,385.00 $11,430.32 +$234.75
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 11:35am ET $153.30 74 $11,344.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 2:00pm ET $156.48 74 $11,579.52 $11,665.27 +$234.95
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 2:25pm ET $153.33 76 $11,653.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $146.27 76 $11,116.52 $11,128.71 $-536.56
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 1:00pm ET $147.78 75 $11,083.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $151.00 75 $11,325.00 $11,370.21 +$241.50
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET $151.12 75 $11,334.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $148.37 75 $11,127.75 $11,163.96 $-206.25
(-1.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $148.38 75 $11,128.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:10am ET $143.87 75 $10,790.25 $10,825.71 $-338.25
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 10:40am ET $144.34 75 $10,825.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 11:45am ET $147.26 75 $11,044.87 $11,045.46 +$219.75
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 12:25pm ET $146.04 75 $10,953.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 10:00am ET $149.10 75 $11,182.13 $11,274.59 +$229.13
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 11:35am ET $152.89 73 $11,160.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:55am ET $148.22 73 $10,820.06 $10,933.72 $-340.87
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,933.72
Net Profit/Loss: +$933.72
Total Return: +9.34%
Back to Rebel Contraire