MRNA Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 38 trades in period
+116.13%
Last 3 Months Return
$52,921.67
Current Value
66%
Win Rate
$24,485.54
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score PRO Scored Sep 24, 2026
77
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Score ≥ 70 + Momentum ≥ 40
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
22.0/25
Win Rate
8.8/15
Profit Factor
5.6/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
77.8/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 77.2
30-Day Momentum
62
+14.8%
30d Return
77%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 65.0
Conf: 0.95×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$24,485.54
Current Value
$52,921.67
Period P&L
$28,436.18
Max Drawdown
-42.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.19
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
25 /
13
Best Trade
+85.92%
Worst Trade
-4.44%
Avg Trade Return
+2.71%
Avg Hold Time
18.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,685,103.37
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$28,436.18
Net P&L (after fees)
$28,436.18
Gross Return
+116.13%
Net Return (after fees)
+116.13%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $24,485.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 11:30am ET | $59.91 | 408 | $24,443.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $62.42 | 408 | $25,467.16 | $25,509.39 |
+$1,023.88 (+4.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 11:20am ET | $68.49 | 372 | $25,476.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.51 | 372 | $26,603.58 | $26,636.54 |
+$1,127.16 (+4.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 10:25am ET | $72.29 | 368 | $26,602.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 12:35pm ET | $73.74 | 368 | $27,136.32 | $27,170.14 |
+$533.60 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 11:15am ET | $82.68 | 328 | $27,117.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 11:55am ET | $84.49 | 328 | $27,712.72 | $27,765.46 |
+$595.32 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $79.36 | 349 | $27,696.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $75.84 | 349 | $26,468.16 | $26,536.98 |
$-1,228.48 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $75.85 | 349 | $26,471.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.45 | 349 | $25,633.18 | $25,698.51 |
$-838.47 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 11:20am ET | $68.79 | 373 | $25,658.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 2:25pm ET | $66.72 | 373 | $24,886.56 | $24,926.40 |
$-772.11 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $67.44 | 369 | $24,885.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $65.18 | 369 | $24,049.58 | $24,090.62 |
$-835.78 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 1:40pm ET | $62.47 | 385 | $24,051.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 2:55pm ET | $60.53 | 385 | $23,304.05 | $23,342.68 |
$-747.94 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $59.42 | 392 | $23,292.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $57.41 | 392 | $22,504.72 | $22,554.76 |
$-787.92 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $55.12 | 409 | $22,544.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.29 | 409 | $23,022.61 | $23,033.33 |
+$478.57 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $53.71 | 428 | $22,985.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 11:45am ET | $54.85 | 428 | $23,477.94 | $23,525.53 |
+$492.20 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 12:40pm ET | $54.47 | 431 | $23,478.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 2:45pm ET | $55.66 | 431 | $23,989.46 | $24,036.26 |
+$510.74 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 3:30pm ET | $57.28 | 419 | $24,000.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:45am ET | $58.74 | 419 | $24,612.06 | $24,648.00 |
+$611.74 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $57.30 | 430 | $24,639.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $55.35 | 430 | $23,800.50 | $23,809.50 |
$-838.50 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:55am ET | $57.12 | 416 | $23,761.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $55.28 | 416 | $22,994.40 | $23,041.98 |
$-767.52 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 11:15am ET | $56.87 | 405 | $23,032.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 2:00pm ET | $58.32 | 405 | $23,621.18 | $23,630.81 |
+$588.83 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 3:05pm ET | $59.31 | 398 | $23,607.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $60.62 | 398 | $24,124.77 | $24,148.21 |
+$517.40 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.7h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 1:55pm ET | $63.58 | 379 | $24,096.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $64.93 | 379 | $24,606.58 | $24,657.97 |
+$509.76 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 12:30pm ET | $63.21 | 390 | $24,651.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $64.79 | 390 | $25,269.23 | $25,275.30 |
+$617.33 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 1:30pm ET | $63.52 | 397 | $25,217.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $118.10 | 397 | $46,885.46 | $46,943.32 |
+$21,668.02 (+85.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $147.05 | 319 | $46,908.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $141.58 | 319 | $45,164.02 | $45,198.90 |
$-1,744.42 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $142.43 | 317 | $45,151.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $145.85 | 317 | $46,234.45 | $46,281.46 |
+$1,082.56 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $132.81 | 348 | $46,217.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 11:15am ET | $136.65 | 348 | $47,552.46 | $47,616.01 |
+$1,334.55 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 2:15pm ET | $156.91 | 303 | $47,543.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $150.50 | 303 | $45,601.50 | $45,673.78 |
$-1,942.23 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 10:50am ET | $142.86 | 319 | $45,572.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $136.56 | 319 | $43,562.64 | $43,664.08 |
$-2,009.70 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $136.68 | 319 | $43,602.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $140.23 | 319 | $44,733.37 | $44,794.93 |
+$1,130.85 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 10:55am ET | $144.47 | 310 | $44,784.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 11:40am ET | $148.16 | 310 | $45,929.60 | $45,940.23 |
+$1,145.30 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 11:55am ET | $147.20 | 312 | $45,925.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $150.29 | 312 | $46,890.48 | $46,905.52 |
+$965.29 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 2:50pm ET | $144.58 | 324 | $46,843.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $148.53 | 324 | $48,123.72 | $48,185.32 |
+$1,279.80 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $143.05 | 336 | $48,064.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $137.68 | 336 | $46,261.55 | $46,382.07 |
$-1,803.25 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 10:20am ET | $134.47 | 344 | $46,257.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $138.09 | 344 | $47,503.99 | $47,628.18 |
+$1,246.11 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $142.88 | 333 | $47,579.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 12:00pm ET | $145.74 | 333 | $48,531.42 | $48,580.56 |
+$952.38 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $142.76 | 340 | $48,538.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 10:50am ET | $146.05 | 340 | $49,656.49 | $49,698.65 |
+$1,118.09 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $156.33 | 317 | $49,556.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 11:45am ET | $159.66 | 317 | $50,612.22 | $50,754.26 |
+$1,055.61 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 11:50am ET | $154.67 | 328 | $50,731.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $161.52 | 328 | $52,980.20 | $53,002.70 |
+$2,248.44 (+4.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 11:25am ET | $181.67 | 291 | $52,865.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $187.35 | 291 | $54,518.85 | $54,655.58 |
+$1,652.88 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 10:50am ET | $187.85 | 290 | $54,476.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 12:55pm ET | $181.87 | 290 | $52,742.59 | $52,921.67 |
$-1,733.91 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$52,921.67
Net Profit/Loss:
+$42,921.67
Total Return:
+429.22%