Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:21:48

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.9/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
6.7/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 35.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 35.7

30-Day Momentum

9
-2.8%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.1 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-26 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$192.78
Current Value
$14,558.39
Period P&L
$-3,786.48
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.43

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
8 / 12
Best Trade
+2.26%
Worst Trade
-6.28%
Avg Trade Return
-1.04%
Avg Hold Time
4.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$628,184.26
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,786.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,786.48
Gross Return
-1964.13%
Net Return (after fees)
-1964.13%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $192.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 11:50am ET $222.73 81 $18,041.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $216.04 81 $17,499.04 $17,580.84 $-542.09
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 11:50am ET $222.73 81 $18,041.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $216.85 81 $17,564.85 $17,104.56 $-476.28
(-2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
11.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:40am ET $220.34 77 $16,965.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $222.04 77 $17,096.70 $17,235.46 +$130.90
(+0.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 10:25am ET $230.50 74 $17,057.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET $221.83 74 $16,415.42 $16,593.61 $-641.85
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 1:00pm ET $217.14 76 $16,502.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 3:10pm ET $210.61 76 $16,006.36 $16,097.33 $-496.28
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 3:10pm ET $215.10 74 $15,917.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 12:30pm ET $219.56 74 $16,247.44 $16,427.37 +$330.04
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 1:35pm ET $214.80 76 $16,324.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 1:35pm ET $211.98 76 $16,110.48 $16,213.05 $-214.32
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:40am ET $220.34 77 $16,965.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $206.50 77 $15,900.50 $15,147.75 $-1,065.30
(-6.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $208.97 72 $15,045.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $213.65 72 $15,382.44 $15,484.35 +$336.60
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 11:20am ET $217.66 71 $15,454.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 11:20am ET $217.26 71 $15,425.81 $15,455.95 $-28.40
(-0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 2:10pm ET $215.64 71 $15,310.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 10:30am ET $220.19 71 $15,633.49 $15,779.00 +$323.05
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 10:40am ET $221.37 71 $15,717.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 10:40am ET $216.61 71 $15,379.31 $15,441.04 $-337.96
(-2.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 10:55am ET $214.36 72 $15,433.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 3:30pm ET $207.89 72 $14,968.08 $14,975.20 $-465.84
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 3:40pm ET $213.88 70 $14,971.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 3:40pm ET $214.09 70 $14,986.12 $14,990.07 +$14.87
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 11:30am ET $216.24 69 $14,920.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 11:30am ET $213.14 69 $14,706.66 $14,776.17 $-213.90
(-1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 12:10pm ET $216.76 68 $14,739.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 12:10pm ET $217.57 68 $14,794.42 $14,830.91 +$54.74
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $216.00 68 $14,688.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 10:50am ET $209.21 68 $14,226.28 $14,369.19 $-461.72
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $202.49 70 $14,174.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $207.07 70 $14,494.90 $14,689.79 +$320.60
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 9:45am ET $201.14 73 $14,683.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $205.55 73 $15,005.15 $15,011.72 +$321.93
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET $204.38 73 $14,919.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 1:00pm ET $198.17 73 $14,466.41 $14,558.39 $-453.33
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,558.39
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,558.39
Total Return: +45.58%
Back to Rebel Contraire