Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 20:28:15

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

33
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.5/35
Total Return
13.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 33.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 33.1

30-Day Momentum

12
+0.4%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.4 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,412.88
Current Value
$13,571.90
Period P&L
$2,159.05
Max Drawdown
-19.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.30

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
15 / 7
Best Trade
+9.74%
Worst Trade
-3.87%
Avg Trade Return
+0.86%
Avg Hold Time
3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$556,603.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,159.05
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,159.05
Gross Return
+18.92%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.92%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $11,412.88 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $362.57 31 $11,239.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 12:45pm ET $351.68 31 $10,902.08 $11,075.31 $-337.54
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 1:15pm ET $369.79 29 $10,723.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $378.28 29 $10,970.12 $11,321.52 +$246.21
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 10:55am ET $369.73 30 $11,091.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET $378.45 30 $11,353.50 $11,583.12 +$261.60
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET $385.96 30 $11,578.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:20am ET $394.94 30 $11,848.20 $11,852.52 +$269.40
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 11:05am ET $382.61 30 $11,478.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 11:05am ET $390.04 30 $11,701.20 $12,075.27 +$222.75
(+1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 11:10am ET $386.08 31 $11,968.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:10am ET $394.16 31 $12,218.96 $12,325.75 +$250.48
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 12:10pm ET $399.88 30 $11,996.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 12:10pm ET $397.78 30 $11,933.40 $12,262.75 $-63.00
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 12:10pm ET $388.60 31 $12,046.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 12:10pm ET $389.99 31 $12,089.69 $12,305.84 +$43.09
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 12:30pm ET $398.10 30 $11,943.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $436.88 30 $13,106.25 $13,469.09 +$1,163.25
(+9.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $450.00 29 $13,050.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET $460.38 29 $13,351.02 $13,770.11 +$301.02
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
20m held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 10:15am ET $486.32 28 $13,616.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 10:35am ET $496.45 28 $13,900.60 $14,053.76 +$283.65
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 11:10am ET $489.82 28 $13,714.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $499.82 28 $13,994.82 $14,333.76 +$280.00
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 10:50am ET $510.40 28 $14,291.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:55am ET $493.38 28 $13,814.50 $13,857.05 $-476.71
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 10:45am ET $497.88 27 $13,442.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 10:30am ET $482.70 27 $13,032.90 $13,447.33 $-409.72
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 11:55am ET $481.11 27 $12,989.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $483.66 27 $13,058.79 $13,516.15 +$68.82
(+0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 11:55am ET $481.11 27 $12,989.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $487.94 27 $13,174.38 $13,700.56 +$184.41
(+1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $490.90 27 $13,254.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:10am ET $501.31 27 $13,535.37 $13,981.49 +$280.93
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
35m held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 10:15am ET $508.39 27 $13,726.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 10:15am ET $497.73 27 $13,438.84 $13,693.80 $-287.69
(-2.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 12:25pm ET $512.86 26 $13,334.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $493.04 26 $12,818.91 $13,178.35 $-515.45
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:15am ET $491.61 26 $12,781.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 10:00am ET $501.85 26 $13,048.10 $13,444.50 +$266.15
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:00am ET $500.93 26 $13,024.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $495.59 26 $12,885.34 $13,305.66 $-138.84
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:45am ET $497.62 26 $12,938.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:40am ET $507.86 26 $13,204.36 $13,571.90 +$266.24
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,571.90
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,571.90
Total Return: +35.72%
Back to Rebel Contraire