MU Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 36 trades in period
-7.95%
Last 3 Months Return
$22,183.85
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$24,100.98
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
45
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
12.8/35
Total Return
17.2/25
Win Rate
7.9/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality
45.6/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 45.4
30-Day Momentum
50
+11.3%
30d Return
89%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 59.4
Conf: 0.84×
Steady (+5 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$24,100.98
Current Value
$22,183.85
Period P&L
$-1,917.07
Max Drawdown
-32.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
22 /
14
Best Trade
+5.61%
Worst Trade
-9.20%
Avg Trade Return
-0.16%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,416,274.56
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,917.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,917.07
Gross Return
-7.95%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.95%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $24,100.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 12:40pm ET | $1,205.61 | 19 | $22,906.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 1:35pm ET | $1,231.11 | 19 | $23,391.18 | $24,585.52 |
+$484.60 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 1:35pm ET | $1,168.49 | 21 | $24,538.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $1,132.18 | 21 | $23,775.68 | $23,822.90 |
$-762.61 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 3:50pm ET | $1,122.30 | 21 | $23,568.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,145.31 | 21 | $24,051.61 | $24,306.21 |
+$483.31 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,068.12 | 22 | $23,498.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,032.52 | 22 | $22,715.44 | $23,523.01 |
$-783.20 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.4h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $1,010.49 | 23 | $23,241.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $917.57 | 23 | $21,104.11 | $21,385.85 |
$-2,137.16 (-9.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 10:10am ET | $944.69 | 22 | $20,783.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 11:25am ET | $916.00 | 22 | $20,152.00 | $20,754.67 |
$-631.18 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1,014.63 | 20 | $20,292.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $961.78 | 20 | $19,235.60 | $19,697.77 |
$-1,056.90 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $916.62 | 21 | $19,249.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 10:20am ET | $935.18 | 21 | $19,638.78 | $20,087.51 |
+$389.74 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 2:30pm ET | $982.00 | 20 | $19,640.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $951.07 | 20 | $19,021.40 | $19,468.91 |
$-618.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 10:20am ET | $869.63 | 22 | $19,131.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $842.18 | 22 | $18,527.96 | $18,865.01 |
$-603.90 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 1:40pm ET | $889.40 | 21 | $18,677.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 3:20pm ET | $858.29 | 21 | $18,024.18 | $18,211.79 |
$-653.22 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $933.19 | 19 | $17,730.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 11:10am ET | $953.41 | 19 | $18,114.88 | $18,596.07 |
+$384.27 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 11:30am ET | $970.38 | 19 | $18,437.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $996.63 | 19 | $18,935.88 | $19,094.73 |
+$498.66 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $949.00 | 20 | $18,980.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 2:25pm ET | $916.08 | 20 | $18,321.50 | $18,436.23 |
$-658.50 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 2:35pm ET | $879.44 | 20 | $17,588.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $897.66 | 20 | $17,953.30 | $18,800.73 |
+$364.50 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 3:35pm ET | $821.24 | 22 | $18,067.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 10:20am ET | $792.17 | 22 | $17,427.74 | $18,161.19 |
$-639.54 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $850.79 | 21 | $17,866.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 1:10pm ET | $867.84 | 21 | $18,224.64 | $18,519.24 |
+$358.05 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 2:05pm ET | $844.09 | 21 | $17,725.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $782.70 | 21 | $16,436.60 | $17,230.05 |
$-1,289.19 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $891.64 | 19 | $16,941.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $912.41 | 19 | $17,335.79 | $17,624.77 |
+$394.72 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 12:20pm ET | $891.54 | 19 | $16,939.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $864.21 | 19 | $16,419.99 | $17,105.50 |
$-519.27 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $868.06 | 19 | $16,493.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $916.79 | 19 | $17,419.01 | $18,031.37 |
+$925.87 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 10:10am ET | $933.72 | 19 | $17,740.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 10:50am ET | $956.72 | 19 | $18,177.68 | $18,468.46 |
+$437.09 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 11:40am ET | $958.89 | 19 | $18,218.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,000.00 | 19 | $19,000.00 | $19,249.55 |
+$781.09 (+4.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $957.26 | 20 | $19,145.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET | $922.00 | 20 | $18,440.00 | $18,544.35 |
$-705.20 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 11:25am ET | $955.60 | 19 | $18,156.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $987.11 | 19 | $18,755.09 | $19,142.95 |
+$598.60 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $902.50 | 21 | $18,952.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $921.18 | 21 | $19,344.88 | $19,535.33 |
+$392.38 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.7h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 2:55pm ET | $927.41 | 21 | $19,475.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $967.78 | 21 | $20,323.38 | $20,383.10 |
+$847.77 (+4.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 11:30am ET | $937.59 | 21 | $19,689.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 3:50pm ET | $956.64 | 21 | $20,089.49 | $20,783.21 |
+$400.11 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 11:30am ET | $937.59 | 21 | $19,689.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $947.74 | 21 | $19,902.64 | $20,996.48 |
+$213.27 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 11:45am ET | $999.29 | 21 | $20,985.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,037.25 | 21 | $21,782.33 | $21,793.64 |
+$797.16 (+3.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $999.46 | 21 | $20,988.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $1,020.13 | 21 | $21,422.73 | $22,227.82 |
+$434.18 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $991.28 | 22 | $21,808.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $909.68 | 22 | $20,012.96 | $20,432.51 |
$-1,795.31 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 10:40am ET | $933.80 | 21 | $19,609.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $955.18 | 21 | $20,058.78 | $20,881.39 |
+$448.88 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 10:25am ET | $993.14 | 21 | $20,855.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,014.66 | 21 | $21,307.86 | $21,333.31 |
+$451.92 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.5h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 11:25am ET | $1,072.02 | 19 | $20,368.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 3:05pm ET | $1,093.67 | 19 | $20,779.73 | $21,744.65 |
+$411.34 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 12:05pm ET | $1,055.73 | 20 | $21,114.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 3:35pm ET | $1,077.69 | 20 | $21,553.90 | $22,183.85 |
+$439.20 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.5h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$22,183.85
Net Profit/Loss:
+$12,183.85
Total Return:
+121.84%