MU Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-04-26 to present • 35 trades in period
+11.92%
Last 3 Months Return
$19,697.77
Current Value
66%
Win Rate
$17,599.28
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026
40
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
10.6/35
Total Return
16.5/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality
42.0/100
× Confidence 0.95
= 39.9
30-Day Momentum
3
-19.9%
30d Return
17%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-37 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$17,599.28
Current Value
$19,697.77
Period P&L
$2,098.56
Max Drawdown
-32.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
23 /
12
Best Trade
+6.27%
Worst Trade
-9.20%
Avg Trade Return
+0.40%
Avg Hold Time
16.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,418,584.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,098.56
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,098.56
Gross Return
+11.92%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.92%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $17,599.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $520.66 | 33 | $17,181.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $502.27 | 33 | $16,574.91 | $16,992.35 |
$-606.87 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 11:15am ET | $518.76 | 32 | $16,600.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $533.47 | 32 | $17,071.04 | $17,463.07 |
+$470.72 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:35am ET | $536.02 | 32 | $17,152.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $558.87 | 32 | $17,883.84 | $18,194.27 |
+$731.20 (+4.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $643.41 | 28 | $18,015.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $659.20 | 28 | $18,457.46 | $18,636.11 |
+$441.84 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $650.98 | 28 | $18,227.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $669.55 | 28 | $18,747.40 | $19,156.07 |
+$519.96 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 10:45am ET | $707.50 | 27 | $19,102.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $721.67 | 27 | $19,485.09 | $19,538.66 |
+$382.59 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 12:20pm ET | $788.02 | 24 | $18,912.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 1:05pm ET | $804.70 | 24 | $19,312.68 | $19,938.91 |
+$400.25 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 2:45pm ET | $746.84 | 26 | $19,417.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 3:50pm ET | $762.26 | 26 | $19,818.76 | $20,339.83 |
+$400.92 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 10:05am ET | $796.76 | 25 | $19,919.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $731.76 | 25 | $18,294.00 | $18,714.77 |
$-1,625.06 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $727.31 | 25 | $18,182.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:35am ET | $698.34 | 25 | $17,458.38 | $17,990.39 |
$-724.38 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 11:25am ET | $678.67 | 26 | $17,645.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 11:45am ET | $696.16 | 26 | $18,100.16 | $18,445.00 |
+$454.61 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $719.23 | 25 | $17,980.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $736.47 | 25 | $18,411.75 | $18,876.05 |
+$431.05 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 9:50am ET | $752.00 | 25 | $18,800.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 11:20am ET | $769.20 | 25 | $19,230.00 | $19,306.05 |
+$430.00 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 3:30pm ET | $910.31 | 21 | $19,116.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $955.96 | 21 | $20,075.16 | $20,264.70 |
+$958.65 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $921.38 | 21 | $19,349.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 11:05am ET | $940.29 | 21 | $19,746.09 | $20,661.72 |
+$397.02 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 11:35am ET | $966.56 | 21 | $20,297.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,009.50 | 21 | $21,199.50 | $21,563.46 |
+$901.74 (+4.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $1,034.80 | 20 | $20,696.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $1,055.57 | 20 | $21,111.40 | $21,978.86 |
+$415.40 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $1,034.80 | 20 | $20,696.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $989.61 | 20 | $19,792.20 | $21,075.06 |
$-903.80 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $935.16 | 22 | $20,573.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:30pm ET | $906.34 | 22 | $19,939.59 | $20,441.24 |
$-633.82 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $948.32 | 21 | $19,914.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $984.00 | 21 | $20,664.00 | $21,190.52 |
+$749.28 (+3.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $935.52 | 22 | $20,581.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 11:15am ET | $907.00 | 22 | $19,954.00 | $20,563.19 |
$-627.33 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 12:25pm ET | $924.75 | 22 | $20,344.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 1:35pm ET | $945.49 | 22 | $20,800.78 | $21,019.47 |
+$456.28 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:10pm ET | $992.78 | 21 | $20,848.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,055.02 | 21 | $22,155.42 | $22,326.51 |
+$1,307.04 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:00am ET | $1,088.43 | 20 | $21,768.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 11:25am ET | $1,049.30 | 20 | $20,986.00 | $21,543.91 |
$-782.60 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 12:20pm ET | $1,059.36 | 20 | $21,187.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $1,086.17 | 20 | $21,723.40 | $22,080.01 |
+$536.10 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 3:15pm ET | $1,139.41 | 19 | $21,648.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,194.01 | 19 | $22,686.10 | $23,117.32 |
+$1,037.31 (+4.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,071.68 | 21 | $22,505.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $1,095.35 | 21 | $23,002.35 | $23,614.49 |
+$497.17 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $1,034.00 | 22 | $22,748.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $1,056.11 | 22 | $23,234.42 | $24,100.92 |
+$486.43 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 12:40pm ET | $1,205.61 | 19 | $22,906.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 1:35pm ET | $1,231.11 | 19 | $23,391.18 | $24,585.52 |
+$484.60 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 1:35pm ET | $1,168.49 | 21 | $24,538.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $1,132.18 | 21 | $23,775.68 | $23,822.90 |
$-762.61 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 3:50pm ET | $1,122.30 | 21 | $23,568.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,145.31 | 21 | $24,051.61 | $24,306.21 |
+$483.31 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,068.12 | 22 | $23,498.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,032.52 | 22 | $22,715.44 | $23,523.01 |
$-783.20 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.4h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $1,010.49 | 23 | $23,241.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $917.57 | 23 | $21,104.11 | $21,385.85 |
$-2,137.16 (-9.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 10:10am ET | $944.69 | 22 | $20,783.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 11:25am ET | $916.00 | 22 | $20,152.00 | $20,754.67 |
$-631.18 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1,014.63 | 20 | $20,292.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $961.78 | 20 | $19,235.60 | $19,697.77 |
$-1,056.90 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$19,697.77
Net Profit/Loss:
+$9,697.77
Total Return:
+96.98%