Compendium › Rebel Contraire › NIO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NIO
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 25 trades in period

-32.15%
Last 3 Months Return
$4,396.94
Current Value
32%
Win Rate
$6,480.22
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:58:48

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.3/10
Raw Quality 8.3/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 8.3

30-Day Momentum

6
-11.3%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1 Conf: 0.81×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,480.22
Current Value
$4,396.94
Period P&L
$-2,083.28
Max Drawdown
-39.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.52

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
8 / 17
Best Trade
+2.92%
Worst Trade
-6.58%
Avg Trade Return
-1.49%
Avg Hold Time
3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$261,253.29
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,083.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,083.28
Gross Return
-32.15%
Net Return (after fees)
-32.15%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,480.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 9:50am ET $4.99 1,298 $6,477.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET $4.84 1,298 $6,275.83 $6,279.02 $-201.19
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 10:35am ET $4.80 1,307 $6,275.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $4.93 1,307 $6,443.51 $6,447.23 +$168.21
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 11:45am ET $5.01 1,286 $6,442.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $4.82 1,286 $6,204.95 $6,209.32 $-237.91
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 12:40pm ET $5.03 1,233 $6,204.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 3:15pm ET $4.88 1,233 $6,017.16 $6,021.53 $-187.79
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 3:45pm ET $4.92 1,223 $6,017.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET $4.74 1,223 $5,796.41 $5,800.78 $-220.75
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:00am ET $4.82 1,203 $5,800.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $4.93 1,203 $5,928.02 $5,928.78 +$128.00
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 10:15am ET $5.09 1,164 $5,928.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $4.84 1,164 $5,639.58 $5,639.64 $-289.14
(-4.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:45am ET $4.90 1,150 $5,635.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET $4.74 1,150 $5,456.75 $5,461.28 $-178.37
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 10:50am ET $4.64 1,178 $5,460.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 10:40am ET $4.49 1,178 $5,295.11 $5,296.24 $-165.04
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 11:15am ET $4.59 1,153 $5,292.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $4.70 1,153 $5,419.10 $5,423.07 +$126.83
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:00am ET $4.82 1,203 $5,800.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $4.68 1,203 $5,636.05 $5,259.10 $-163.97
(-2.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
20d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET $4.88 1,078 $5,255.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $4.71 1,078 $5,077.38 $5,081.23 $-177.87
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 10:35am ET $4.71 1,078 $5,077.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:45am ET $4.57 1,078 $4,921.93 $4,925.78 $-155.45
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET $4.68 1,053 $4,922.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET $4.78 1,053 $5,032.60 $5,035.61 +$109.83
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 10:20am ET $4.55 1,105 $5,031.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $4.54 1,105 $5,015.60 $5,019.81 $-15.80
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 10:25am ET $4.51 1,113 $5,018.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 12:10pm ET $4.60 1,113 $5,119.80 $5,120.98 +$101.17
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 12:35pm ET $4.62 1,107 $5,118.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $4.48 1,107 $4,957.26 $4,960.13 $-160.85
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 12:35pm ET $4.62 1,107 $5,118.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $4.48 1,107 $4,959.47 $4,801.50 $-158.63
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:35am ET $4.33 1,108 $4,797.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $4.05 1,108 $4,481.86 $4,485.61 $-315.89
(-6.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 10:05am ET $3.89 1,151 $4,482.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET $3.77 1,151 $4,339.27 $4,342.31 $-143.30
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 10:00am ET $3.76 1,154 $4,338.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 1:10pm ET $3.84 1,154 $4,431.36 $4,434.75 +$92.44
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 2:10pm ET $3.71 1,195 $4,433.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 2:40pm ET $3.60 1,195 $4,296.03 $4,297.32 $-137.43
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 3:40pm ET $3.69 1,163 $4,297.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 2:40pm ET $3.58 1,163 $4,163.54 $4,163.57 $-133.75
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23h held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $3.59 1,159 $4,161.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $3.69 1,159 $4,282.50 $4,285.03 +$121.46
(+2.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 9:35am ET $3.63 1,178 $4,282.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET $3.73 1,178 $4,393.94 $4,396.94 +$111.91
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,396.94
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,603.06
Total Return: -56.03%
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