Compendium › Rebel Contraire › NVDA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NVDA
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 23 trades in period

+9.12%
Last 3 Months Return
$19,285.67
Current Value
65%
Win Rate
$17,673.45
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:31:19

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

40
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
9.2/35
Total Return
16.4/25
Win Rate
8.3/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 40.6/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 40.3

30-Day Momentum

25
+3.0%
30d Return
63%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 31.1 Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$17,673.45
Current Value
$19,285.67
Period P&L
$1,612.22
Max Drawdown
-35.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.13

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
15 / 8
Best Trade
+4.31%
Worst Trade
-5.60%
Avg Trade Return
+0.38%
Avg Hold Time
3.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$853,806.79
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,612.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,612.22
Gross Return
+9.12%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.12%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $17,673.45 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 11:40am ET $200.71 88 $17,662.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $194.34 88 $17,101.48 $17,258.52 $-560.56
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 12:10pm ET $193.77 89 $17,245.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET $198.21 89 $17,641.13 $17,654.12 +$395.60
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 10:40am ET $195.29 90 $17,576.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 3:05pm ET $199.63 90 $17,966.70 $18,044.27 +$390.15
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.4h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:50am ET $195.07 92 $17,946.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 12:20pm ET $199.40 92 $18,344.34 $18,442.17 +$397.90
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 3:30pm ET $203.61 90 $18,324.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 11:20am ET $208.26 90 $18,743.40 $18,860.67 +$418.50
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 11:40am ET $207.16 91 $18,851.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 1:50pm ET $211.33 91 $19,231.03 $19,240.14 +$379.47
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET $207.79 92 $19,116.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $200.23 92 $18,420.70 $18,544.62 $-695.52
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:55am ET $205.85 90 $18,526.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 11:05am ET $211.65 90 $19,048.50 $19,066.17 +$521.55
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 11:05am ET $206.79 92 $19,024.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 12:05pm ET $211.46 92 $19,454.56 $19,496.05 +$429.88
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 3:30pm ET $203.61 90 $18,324.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $192.21 90 $17,299.35 $18,470.50 $-1,025.55
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $195.34 94 $18,361.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 1:35pm ET $199.43 94 $18,746.42 $18,855.43 +$384.93
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 2:20pm ET $207.96 90 $18,716.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 2:25pm ET $212.26 90 $19,103.43 $19,242.46 +$387.03
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 3:15pm ET $221.84 86 $19,078.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 3:15pm ET $219.32 86 $18,861.95 $19,026.17 $-216.29
(-1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 11:15am ET $223.42 85 $18,990.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 11:15am ET $226.90 85 $19,286.49 $19,322.03 +$295.86
(+1.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 1:55pm ET $220.14 87 $19,152.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $213.19 87 $18,547.53 $18,717.38 $-604.65
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 1:55pm ET $220.14 87 $19,152.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $212.50 87 $18,487.50 $18,052.70 $-664.68
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:10am ET $225.27 80 $18,021.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 1:10pm ET $229.84 80 $18,387.20 $18,418.56 +$365.86
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 1:10pm ET $218.02 84 $18,313.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 10:10am ET $222.43 84 $18,684.12 $18,789.00 +$370.44
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 1:10pm ET $218.02 84 $18,313.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $227.41 84 $19,102.44 $19,577.76 +$788.76
(+4.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:20pm ET $230.69 84 $19,377.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:20am ET $223.74 84 $18,794.16 $18,993.96 $-583.80
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 10:55am ET $217.91 87 $18,958.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $211.20 87 $18,374.40 $18,409.76 $-584.20
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:00am ET $212.80 86 $18,300.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $218.13 86 $18,759.18 $18,868.14 +$458.38
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 10:05am ET $218.99 86 $18,833.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:40am ET $223.85 86 $19,250.67 $19,285.67 +$417.53
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,285.67
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,285.67
Total Return: +92.86%
Back to Rebel Contraire