PANW Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 32 trades in period
+28.16%
Last 3 Months Return
$23,409.67
Current Value
69%
Win Rate
$18,266.26
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
61
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
25.3/35
Total Return
17.7/25
Win Rate
8.8/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality
61.9/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 60.9
30-Day Momentum
49
+9.8%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 52.4
Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$18,266.26
Current Value
$23,409.67
Period P&L
$5,143.44
Max Drawdown
-18.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.29
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
32
Winners / Losers
22 /
10
Best Trade
+5.44%
Worst Trade
-4.05%
Avg Trade Return
+0.81%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,354,480.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$5,143.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$5,143.44
Gross Return
+28.16%
Net Return (after fees)
+28.16%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 32 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $18,266.26 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $288.76 | 63 | $18,191.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 10:35am ET | $295.09 | 63 | $18,590.67 | $18,722.35 |
+$399.10 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 12:25pm ET | $298.51 | 62 | $18,507.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $305.73 | 62 | $18,954.95 | $19,169.68 |
+$447.33 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $336.25 | 57 | $19,166.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $343.33 | 57 | $19,569.81 | $19,573.24 |
+$403.56 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $348.89 | 56 | $19,537.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 10:00am ET | $356.05 | 56 | $19,938.80 | $19,974.20 |
+$400.96 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 11:40am ET | $357.86 | 55 | $19,682.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $346.62 | 55 | $19,064.10 | $19,356.00 |
$-618.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $326.13 | 59 | $19,241.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 12:15pm ET | $333.10 | 59 | $19,652.90 | $19,767.23 |
+$411.23 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 1:50pm ET | $325.82 | 60 | $19,548.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $335.54 | 60 | $20,132.40 | $20,350.73 |
+$583.50 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 10:25am ET | $356.10 | 57 | $20,297.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $363.71 | 57 | $20,731.47 | $20,784.78 |
+$434.05 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $358.95 | 57 | $20,460.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $344.43 | 57 | $19,632.51 | $19,957.14 |
$-827.64 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 11:00am ET | $333.33 | 59 | $19,666.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 10:05am ET | $323.21 | 59 | $19,069.39 | $19,360.06 |
$-597.08 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $324.33 | 59 | $19,135.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $331.40 | 59 | $19,552.60 | $19,776.90 |
+$416.84 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 11:35am ET | $319.52 | 61 | $19,490.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $332.31 | 61 | $20,270.91 | $20,557.09 |
+$780.19 (+4.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $333.41 | 61 | $20,337.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $340.33 | 61 | $20,760.13 | $20,979.27 |
+$422.18 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 12:40pm ET | $360.36 | 58 | $20,900.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $373.78 | 58 | $21,679.24 | $21,757.63 |
+$778.36 (+3.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $352.36 | 61 | $21,493.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $360.28 | 61 | $21,976.78 | $22,240.45 |
+$482.82 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 10:35am ET | $363.77 | 61 | $22,189.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $372.98 | 61 | $22,751.77 | $22,802.25 |
+$561.80 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:10am ET | $382.59 | 59 | $22,572.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $393.56 | 59 | $23,220.04 | $23,449.48 |
+$647.23 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $388.92 | 60 | $23,335.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $376.98 | 60 | $22,618.50 | $22,732.48 |
$-717.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:55am ET | $372.98 | 60 | $22,378.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET | $361.54 | 60 | $21,692.10 | $22,045.78 |
$-686.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $357.04 | 61 | $21,779.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $345.30 | 61 | $21,063.30 | $21,329.64 |
$-716.14 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $350.45 | 60 | $21,027.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 1:35pm ET | $339.58 | 60 | $20,374.50 | $20,677.14 |
$-652.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 2:40pm ET | $340.06 | 60 | $20,403.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $358.56 | 60 | $21,513.60 | $21,787.14 |
+$1,110.00 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $376.93 | 57 | $21,485.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $365.41 | 57 | $20,828.37 | $21,130.50 |
$-656.64 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 10:35am ET | $374.96 | 56 | $20,997.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 3:50pm ET | $383.12 | 56 | $21,454.72 | $21,587.46 |
+$456.96 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $329.00 | 65 | $21,385.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $336.26 | 65 | $21,856.58 | $22,059.04 |
+$471.58 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 10:30am ET | $329.41 | 66 | $21,741.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $338.49 | 66 | $22,340.34 | $22,658.32 |
+$599.28 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 11:40am ET | $334.36 | 67 | $22,401.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $343.30 | 67 | $23,001.29 | $23,257.82 |
+$599.50 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 10:10am ET | $336.04 | 69 | $23,186.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $346.24 | 69 | $23,890.70 | $23,962.10 |
+$704.28 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.28 | 65 | $23,938.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $375.73 | 65 | $24,422.13 | $24,446.03 |
+$483.93 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 12:00pm ET | $379.35 | 64 | $24,278.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $365.11 | 64 | $23,367.36 | $23,534.99 |
$-911.04 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $374.00 | 62 | $23,188.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $362.45 | 62 | $22,471.90 | $22,818.89 |
$-716.10 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 11:15am ET | $372.93 | 61 | $22,748.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:40am ET | $382.61 | 61 | $23,339.51 | $23,409.67 |
+$590.78 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$23,409.67
Net Profit/Loss:
+$13,409.67
Total Return:
+134.10%