PEPEUSD Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 34 trades in period
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026
Quality Components
30-Day Momentum
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
💸 Capital Refund History
When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.
| # | Date | Capital Before | Trades Before | Era Fees Paid | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dec 19, 2024 | $96.57 | 1,379 | $35,516.14 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
| 2 | Sep 22, 2025 | $94.58 | 2,291 | $9,825.52 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 2 times. Total capital invested: $30,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.
📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures
Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.
📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $1,309.62 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $0.00000309 | 423,839,332 | $1,309.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:20pm ET | $0.00000325 | 423,839,332 | $1,377.48 | $1,370.76 |
+$61.10 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:15pm ET | $0.00000347 | 395,031,693 | $1,370.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:30pm ET | $0.00000354 | 395,031,693 | $1,398.41 | $1,391.49 |
+$20.73 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:00am ET | $0.00000370 | 376,078,179 | $1,391.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $0.00000379 | 376,078,179 | $1,425.34 | $1,418.29 |
+$26.80 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
42m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 6:15pm ET | $0.00000391 | 362,735,099 | $1,418.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 2:05am ET | $0.00000379 | 362,735,099 | $1,374.77 | $1,367.78 |
$-50.51 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:15am ET | $0.00000376 | 363,772,174 | $1,367.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 7:15am ET | $0.00000387 | 363,772,174 | $1,407.80 | $1,400.86 |
+$33.08 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $0.00000376 | 372,568,978 | $1,400.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $0.00000384 | 372,568,978 | $1,430.66 | $1,423.59 |
+$22.73 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 12:10pm ET | $0.00000382 | 372,666,509 | $1,423.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 1:20pm ET | $0.00000390 | 372,666,509 | $1,453.40 | $1,446.21 |
+$22.62 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 11:40am ET | $0.00000378 | 382,594,424 | $1,446.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 5:15am ET | $0.00000365 | 382,594,424 | $1,396.47 | $1,389.36 |
$-56.84 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:15pm ET | $0.00000381 | 364,662,193 | $1,389.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 1:45am ET | $0.00000368 | 364,662,193 | $1,341.96 | $1,335.13 |
$-54.23 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:50am ET | $0.00000367 | 363,795,251 | $1,335.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $0.00000370 | 363,795,251 | $1,346.04 | $1,339.34 |
+$4.21 (+0.8%) |
📅 Sim Ended
10.7h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $0.00000362 | 369,983,425 | $1,339.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 9:30pm ET | $0.00000370 | 369,983,425 | $1,368.94 | $1,368.94 |
+$22.83 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 1:15am ET | $0.00000354 | 386,705,840 | $1,368.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 8:55am ET | $0.00000362 | 386,705,840 | $1,399.88 | $1,399.88 |
+$24.01 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.7h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $0.00000348 | 402,262,972 | $1,399.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 11:10am ET | $0.00000356 | 402,262,972 | $1,432.06 | $1,432.06 |
+$25.10 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 1:05pm ET | $0.00000352 | 406,834,142 | $1,432.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:35pm ET | $0.00000362 | 406,834,142 | $1,472.74 | $1,472.74 |
+$33.42 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 7:05pm ET | $0.00000446 | 330,210,762 | $1,472.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 5:20am ET | $0.00000430 | 330,210,762 | $1,419.91 | $1,419.91 |
$-60.07 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $0.00000435 | 326,416,092 | $1,419.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $0.00000444 | 326,416,092 | $1,449.29 | $1,449.29 |
+$22.20 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 2:35pm ET | $0.00000441 | 328,637,188 | $1,449.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 1:20pm ET | $0.00000427 | 328,637,188 | $1,403.28 | $1,403.28 |
$-53.14 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 3:15pm ET | $0.00000422 | 332,530,806 | $1,403.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 8:25am ET | $0.00000409 | 332,530,806 | $1,360.05 | $1,360.05 |
$-50.14 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $0.00000421 | 323,052,257 | $1,360.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 11:00am ET | $0.00000431 | 323,052,257 | $1,392.36 | $1,392.36 |
+$25.42 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $0.00000424 | 328,386,792 | $1,392.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 21, 2026 3:05am ET | $0.00000433 | 328,386,792 | $1,421.91 | $1,421.91 |
+$22.52 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.9h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 21, 2026 7:30am ET | $0.00000425 | 334,567,059 | $1,421.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 21, 2026 8:05pm ET | $0.00000412 | 334,567,059 | $1,378.42 | $1,378.42 |
$-50.49 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $0.00000400 | 344,605,000 | $1,378.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:15pm ET | $0.00000387 | 344,605,000 | $1,333.62 | $1,333.62 |
$-51.58 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $0.00000408 | 326,867,647 | $1,333.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:35am ET | $0.00000418 | 326,867,647 | $1,366.31 | $1,366.31 |
+$25.94 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:35pm ET | $0.00000433 | 315,545,035 | $1,366.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 6:20pm ET | $0.00000418 | 315,545,035 | $1,318.98 | $1,318.98 |
$-54.04 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 6:40pm ET | $0.00000408 | 323,279,412 | $1,318.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 6:15am ET | $0.00000395 | 323,279,412 | $1,276.95 | $1,276.95 |
$-48.52 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.6h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $0.00000395 | 323,279,412 | $1,276.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:35am ET | $0.00000382 | 323,279,412 | $1,234.93 | $1,234.92 |
$-48.31 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:55am ET | $0.00000346 | 356,913,295 | $1,234.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 2:40am ET | $0.00000353 | 356,913,295 | $1,259.90 | $1,259.90 |
+$18.75 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 4:40am ET | $0.00000345 | 365,188,406 | $1,259.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 8:50am ET | $0.00000354 | 365,188,406 | $1,292.77 | $1,292.77 |
+$26.49 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 9:25am ET | $0.00000355 | 364,160,563 | $1,292.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 11:50am ET | $0.00000344 | 364,160,563 | $1,252.71 | $1,252.71 |
$-46.42 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 12:00pm ET | $0.00000364 | 344,151,099 | $1,252.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 6:25pm ET | $0.00000353 | 344,151,099 | $1,214.85 | $1,214.85 |
$-44.03 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.4h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 6:30pm ET | $0.00000351 | 346,111,111 | $1,214.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 4:30am ET | $0.00000340 | 346,111,111 | $1,176.78 | $1,176.78 |
$-44.05 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:35am ET | $0.00000346 | 340,109,827 | $1,176.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:50am ET | $0.00000354 | 340,109,827 | $1,203.99 | $1,203.99 |
+$21.26 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $0.00000359 | 335,373,259 | $1,203.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:35am ET | $0.00000367 | 335,373,259 | $1,230.82 | $1,230.82 |
+$20.74 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 11:10am ET | $0.00000369 | 333,555,556 | $1,230.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:00pm ET | $0.00000377 | 333,555,556 | $1,257.50 | $1,257.50 |
+$20.46 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
+ 2 refunds ($20,000)