Compendium › Rebel Contraire › QQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
QQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 16 trades in period

-197.02%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,218.41
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$564.23
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:49:49

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

17
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.3/35
Total Return
4.2/25
Win Rate
6.0/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 16.6/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 16.5

30-Day Momentum

3
-1.3%
30d Return
17%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-13 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$564.23
Current Value
$10,218.41
Period P&L
$-1,111.65
Max Drawdown
-24.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.34

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
4 / 12
Best Trade
+2.71%
Worst Trade
-5.48%
Avg Trade Return
-0.69%
Avg Hold Time
7.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$326,162.09
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,111.65
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,111.65
Gross Return
-197.02%
Net Return (after fees)
-197.02%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $564.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 10:35am ET $720.37 15 $10,805.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $716.79 15 $10,751.85 $11,355.86 $-53.70
(-0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 10:35am ET $720.37 15 $10,805.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $718.48 15 $10,777.20 $11,327.51 $-28.35
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $713.74 15 $10,706.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $716.23 15 $10,743.45 $11,364.86 +$37.35
(+0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 11:50am ET $719.41 15 $10,791.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $690.27 15 $10,354.09 $10,927.80 $-437.06
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:55am ET $701.09 15 $10,516.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET $690.40 15 $10,356.00 $10,767.45 $-160.35
(-1.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $713.74 15 $10,706.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $674.64 15 $10,119.60 $10,180.95 $-586.50
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET $686.86 14 $9,616.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 2:05pm ET $701.36 14 $9,819.11 $10,384.02 +$203.07
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 2:40pm ET $723.08 14 $10,123.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET $722.84 14 $10,119.83 $10,380.80 $-3.22
(-0.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:05am ET $721.73 14 $10,104.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET $733.29 14 $10,266.06 $10,542.64 +$161.84
(+1.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $719.90 14 $10,078.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $706.65 14 $9,893.10 $10,357.14 $-185.50
(-1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $719.90 14 $10,078.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $708.63 14 $9,920.82 $10,199.36 $-157.78
(-1.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
8d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:25am ET $718.57 14 $10,059.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 11:25am ET $710.24 14 $9,943.36 $10,082.74 $-116.62
(-1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 11:25am ET $718.57 14 $10,059.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET $717.29 14 $10,042.06 $10,064.82 $-17.92
(-0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 1:00pm ET $719.04 13 $9,347.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $716.45 13 $9,313.85 $10,031.15 $-33.67
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:20pm ET $710.78 14 $9,950.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 1:20pm ET $704.97 14 $9,869.59 $9,949.75 $-81.40
(-0.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $709.06 14 $9,926.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $728.25 14 $10,195.50 $10,218.41 +$268.66
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,218.41
Net Profit/Loss: +$218.41
Total Return: +2.18%
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