RBLX Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 35 trades in period
+19.50%
Last 3 Months Return
$15,808.04
Current Value
66%
Win Rate
$13,228.51
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
37
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
6.4/35
Total Return
15.1/25
Win Rate
8.6/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality
36.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 36.6
30-Day Momentum
60
+14.4%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 71.8
Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+24 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$13,228.51
Current Value
$15,808.04
Period P&L
$2,579.58
Max Drawdown
-34.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
23 /
12
Best Trade
+10.41%
Worst Trade
-16.94%
Avg Trade Return
+0.49%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,010,497.89
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,579.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,579.58
Gross Return
+19.50%
Net Return (after fees)
+19.50%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,228.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 10:20am ET | $48.80 | 283 | $13,810.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.51 | 283 | $13,160.92 | $13,198.75 |
$-649.48 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 12:45pm ET | $47.33 | 278 | $13,156.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.25 | 278 | $14,525.50 | $14,567.90 |
+$1,369.15 (+10.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 10:35am ET | $55.15 | 264 | $14,559.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $56.35 | 264 | $14,876.40 | $14,884.70 |
+$316.80 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $54.69 | 272 | $14,875.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.38 | 272 | $15,335.36 | $15,344.38 |
+$459.68 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $56.60 | 271 | $15,339.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $54.84 | 271 | $14,861.64 | $14,866.07 |
$-478.31 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 12:25pm ET | $55.37 | 268 | $14,839.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.40 | 268 | $15,381.86 | $15,408.77 |
+$542.70 (+3.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 11:10am ET | $57.01 | 270 | $15,391.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 3:45pm ET | $55.18 | 270 | $14,898.60 | $14,916.02 |
$-492.75 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.6h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $55.28 | 269 | $14,868.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 10:55am ET | $56.53 | 269 | $15,207.91 | $15,254.96 |
+$338.94 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 12:30pm ET | $54.86 | 278 | $15,251.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.36 | 278 | $14,556.08 | $14,559.96 |
$-695.00 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 11:40am ET | $54.10 | 269 | $14,551.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 12:20pm ET | $55.34 | 269 | $14,886.46 | $14,894.86 |
+$334.90 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 2:15pm ET | $53.02 | 280 | $14,845.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.26 | 280 | $14,352.80 | $14,402.06 |
$-492.80 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.75 | 295 | $14,381.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:20am ET | $47.21 | 295 | $13,926.95 | $13,947.76 |
$-454.30 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 12:30pm ET | $48.18 | 289 | $13,924.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $46.65 | 289 | $13,481.85 | $13,505.59 |
$-442.17 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $47.57 | 283 | $13,462.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 10:15am ET | $48.71 | 283 | $13,783.52 | $13,826.80 |
+$321.21 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 10:45am ET | $48.71 | 283 | $13,784.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:05pm ET | $49.71 | 283 | $14,067.93 | $14,109.80 |
+$283.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 12:15pm ET | $48.10 | 293 | $14,091.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $39.95 | 293 | $11,705.35 | $11,723.31 |
$-2,386.49 (-16.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 10:05am ET | $36.31 | 322 | $11,691.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 11:15am ET | $37.08 | 322 | $11,939.76 | $11,971.25 |
+$247.94 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 11:30am ET | $37.33 | 320 | $11,945.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 12:05pm ET | $38.17 | 320 | $12,214.40 | $12,240.05 |
+$268.80 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 12:10pm ET | $35.81 | 341 | $12,211.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $36.75 | 341 | $12,531.75 | $12,560.59 |
+$320.54 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 12:35pm ET | $36.76 | 341 | $12,535.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 3:40pm ET | $37.65 | 341 | $12,838.38 | $12,863.81 |
+$303.22 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.48 | 352 | $12,840.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $37.35 | 352 | $13,145.44 | $13,168.29 |
+$304.48 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 10:35am ET | $35.63 | 369 | $13,147.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 12:35pm ET | $36.39 | 369 | $13,427.91 | $13,448.73 |
+$280.44 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 12:45pm ET | $38.63 | 348 | $13,443.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 11:50am ET | $39.44 | 348 | $13,725.12 | $13,730.61 |
+$281.88 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 1:10pm ET | $38.42 | 357 | $13,715.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $39.31 | 357 | $14,033.67 | $14,048.34 |
+$317.73 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $38.45 | 365 | $14,034.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $39.22 | 365 | $14,317.12 | $14,331.21 |
+$282.87 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 12:10pm ET | $38.51 | 372 | $14,325.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $39.67 | 372 | $14,759.10 | $14,764.59 |
+$433.38 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $37.97 | 388 | $14,734.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.86 | 388 | $15,077.68 | $15,107.97 |
+$343.38 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 12:25pm ET | $40.55 | 372 | $15,084.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $43.19 | 372 | $16,064.82 | $16,088.19 |
+$980.22 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 10:55am ET | $42.25 | 380 | $16,055.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 2:05pm ET | $43.10 | 380 | $16,379.90 | $16,413.09 |
+$324.90 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 2:10pm ET | $44.99 | 364 | $16,376.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $43.57 | 364 | $15,859.48 | $15,896.21 |
$-516.88 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 11:50am ET | $45.20 | 351 | $15,865.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 12:00pm ET | $46.15 | 351 | $16,198.65 | $16,229.66 |
+$333.45 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 12:45pm ET | $50.41 | 321 | $16,181.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $48.90 | 321 | $15,695.30 | $15,743.35 |
$-486.31 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $47.50 | 331 | $15,722.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.00 | 331 | $16,881.00 | $16,901.85 |
+$1,158.50 (+7.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.61 | 333 | $16,853.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:25am ET | $49.08 | 333 | $16,345.30 | $16,394.02 |
$-507.83 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 10:40am ET | $49.31 | 332 | $16,370.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 2:25pm ET | $47.54 | 332 | $15,784.94 | $15,808.04 |
$-585.98 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,808.04
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,808.04
Total Return:
+58.08%