Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:09:51

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
53.6 neutral
20d Trend
-3.7%
5d Trend
+4.3%
EMA20 Dist
+1.1%
ATR%
2.8%
Range Pos
81%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 11.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.1

30-Day Momentum

6
-3.7%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.0 Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,987
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,046.77
Current Value
$8,232.32
Period P&L
$1,185.58
Max Drawdown
-42.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.39

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
15 / 7
Best Trade
+4.78%
Worst Trade
-4.43%
Avg Trade Return
+0.83%
Avg Hold Time
4.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$329,631.12
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,185.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,185.58
Gross Return
+16.82%
Net Return (after fees)
+16.82%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 REGN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $7,046.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 11:00am ET $618.72 11 $6,805.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:45am ET $631.82 11 $6,950.02 $7,123.19 +$144.10
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 10:10am ET $634.53 11 $6,979.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:10am ET $625.57 11 $6,881.22 $7,024.63 $-98.56
(-1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 11:15am ET $644.99 10 $6,449.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $657.96 10 $6,579.58 $7,154.31 +$129.68
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 11:55am ET $668.46 10 $6,684.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $658.96 10 $6,589.60 $7,059.31 $-95.00
(-1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 10:30am ET $657.22 10 $6,572.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET $672.66 10 $6,726.60 $7,213.71 +$154.40
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 10:00am ET $686.01 10 $6,860.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 10:00am ET $672.89 10 $6,728.90 $7,082.56 $-131.15
(-1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 11:50am ET $650.21 10 $6,502.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 10:10am ET $664.44 10 $6,644.40 $7,224.86 +$142.30
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 12:30pm ET $675.25 10 $6,752.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:40am ET $688.82 10 $6,888.15 $7,360.51 +$135.65
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 11:55am ET $668.46 10 $6,684.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET $700.39 10 $7,003.90 $7,679.81 +$319.30
(+4.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET $733.20 10 $7,332.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 1:20pm ET $749.26 10 $7,492.60 $7,840.41 +$160.60
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.7h held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 3:30pm ET $759.97 10 $7,599.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 12:05pm ET $776.19 10 $7,761.90 $8,002.66 +$162.25
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 12:45pm ET $763.46 10 $7,634.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET $779.92 10 $7,799.20 $8,167.26 +$164.60
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 10:10am ET $794.98 10 $7,949.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 9:45am ET $811.91 10 $8,119.10 $8,336.51 +$169.25
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 10:30am ET $793.05 10 $7,930.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 10:20am ET $809.50 10 $8,094.96 $8,500.97 +$164.46
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 10:35am ET $797.94 10 $7,979.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:45am ET $814.67 10 $8,146.70 $8,668.27 +$167.30
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 10:05am ET $838.67 10 $8,386.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 10:05am ET $826.46 10 $8,264.60 $8,546.17 $-122.10
(-1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 10:05am ET $838.67 10 $8,386.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $827.85 10 $8,278.50 $8,437.97 $-108.20
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $804.65 10 $8,046.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $816.14 10 $8,161.40 $8,552.87 +$114.90
(+1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET $833.41 10 $8,334.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 1:55pm ET $850.55 10 $8,505.55 $8,724.37 +$171.50
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4h held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 2:00pm ET $844.25 10 $8,442.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $806.85 10 $8,068.50 $8,350.37 $-374.00
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $803.83 10 $8,038.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $789.02 10 $7,890.20 $8,202.27 $-148.10
(-1.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $783.66 10 $7,836.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $786.66 10 $7,866.60 $8,232.32 +$30.05
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,232.32
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,767.68
Total Return: -17.68%
Back to Rebel Contraire